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Post by Bonobo on Feb 27, 2013 0:28:37 GMT 1
WARSAW — Polish households' hearty appetite for new cars, televisions and washing machines has helped pull the economy out of previous slumps, but in this downturn consumers are leaving their wallets at home.
Data on private consumption and consumer sentiment is so weak, in some cases the weakest since the end of Communist rule, that official forecasts that the economy will pick-up in the second half of this year are looking optimistic.
Most European economies have seen private consumption fall since the 2008 financial crisis, but the EU's largest eastern economy stands out for several reasons.
The slowdown has arrived much later than in the rest of the continent, held off largely by demand from consumers whose living standards had been rising quickly since joining the EU in 2004.
The drop-off in consumption is severe and feels more painful for a country which needs to grow faster - and generally has done until recently - to reduce what remains a substantial wealth gap to its western peers.
Preliminary data shows that private consumption may have contracted in the fourth quarter of last year for the first time since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.
According to business lobby group Lewiatan, real wages fell 0.1 percent in 2012, the first time since 1993.
Even the central bank, which has long held the view that the downturn would be short-lived, acknowledges the problem.
"There is this grey cloud floating from the West, slowly overshadowing the Polish economy," said Marek Belka, the central bank governor. "And it is telling the Polish consumer ... be careful, go hide in some hole."
Tipping Point
In December, traditionally a strong month for store owners because of pre-Christmas shopping, retail sales took their deepest dive in almost eight years, dragged down by falling sales of cars and books.
Consumer sentiment in January stood at 76 points, a touch above the previous month's reading that was near a 20-year low.
"The Polish consumer now seems to be scared out of his mind," says Danske Bank's Lars Christensen, one of the most experienced commercial bank economists watching eastern Europe.
He and others say that Poles have finally lost their faith, ingrained by more than two decades of almost uninterrupted growth, that the economy will keep expanding.
Political debate in the country of 38 million has been dominated over the past year by warnings of a deepening downturn, filling domestic media with grim tidings. Unemployment is back on the rise.
"Poles have been bombarded with bad news for five years now and this is now taking its toll," said Halina Kochalska from mortgage brokers and financial advisors' Open Finance. "It's like a self-fulfilling prophecy. People are worried about what's ahead and articles on the front pages of newspapers about mass layoffs at factories, like Fiat, or possible bankruptcy of big companies like the airlines LOT don't help."
There is also evidence that a boom in consumer credit seems to have reached a natural stopping point.
After expanding for most of the last 15 years, the overall stock of consumer credit - never mind that of new loans - has started falling; in all of 2012, Poles paid back a net 6.9 billion zlotys ($2.24 billion) in loans, leaving 132.1 billion outstanding.
As many as 66 percent of Poles now say they have at least one car in their household. About 86 percent have a mobile phone, over 90 percent own a washing machine, and half say they have a digital camera.
"A critical point seems to have been reached," says Kochalska. "Demand for credit is falling and this year will be very difficult as well with no improvement in sight."
Born Poor
Less than two decades after a transition from communism, which left a fifth of the workforce unemployed, even younger Poles are still more experienced than their Western European peers at living for little.
Poles live in smaller apartments - 47.5 percent are overcrowded compared to the EU average - and drive cars that are on average almost twice as old.
After falling for the best part of a decade, unemployment rose to a six-year high of 14.2 percent in January and many are tightening the purse strings in response.
Magda, a 36-year-old writer in Warsaw, said it was the first time in her memory that friends from her middle-class circle had lost their jobs and struggled to find new ones.
"I am three months pregnant now and I frankly hope it's another girl," she said. "We wouldn't have to buy anything new if it was another girl, we have everything for a girl already."
Officials maintain a recovery is round the corner. The government forecasts GDP growth of 2.2 percent this year, against last year's 2.0 percent. It bases this on expectations for improvements in the eurozone, which could filter through to Poland's economy.
But Poland's dependence on its domestic consumers, the very thing which helped insulate the country from the slowdown up to now, now means any improvement outside the country will be slow to reach the Polish economy.
In southern neighbor, the Czech Republic, exports account for about 80 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The Polish figure is half that.
"I think the recovery will disappoint," said one London-based hedge-fund strategist. "It is the Polish consumers that have troubled me. They just can't drive another recovery."
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Post by pjotr on Feb 27, 2013 12:25:28 GMT 1
Bo,
That is sad to read, because for the Polish economy to continue going well, there must be Polish spending. It is important that Poles keep buying new Polish cars, televisions and washing machines, and that they keep their trust in Polish banks and financial institutions. It is important to stay positive, to keep working hard, to spend money to support the Polish economy, to invest in the economy, buy Polish stocks and doing so supporting the Polish financial market.
Poland has just had 20 years where we have had 68 years to develop our version of the Capitalist economy. Poland has to hold on, because it has achieved so much in the past 20 years.
The Political debate in Poland has been on the wrong track if I read this article correctly. It echo's the defaitisme, apathy, fatalism and pessimism of the Western-European political discourse. These warnings of a deepening downturn, filling domestic media with grim tidings are backlashing. They are funest for a feeling of trust. Unemployment may be back on the rise, but could as well be caused by the negative news and as a cause of that the Polish consumers who are leaving their wallets at home.
I agree with Halina Kochalska:
"Poles have been bombarded with bad news for five years now and this is now taking its toll," from mortgage brokers and financial advisors' Open Finance. "It's like a self-fulfilling prophecy. People are worried about what's ahead and articles on the front pages of newspapers about mass layoffs at factories, like Fiat, or possible bankruptcy of big companies like the airlines LOT don't help."
When do politicians, journalists, economics and analysts get it that spreading fear, pessimism, panic news and thus bad scenario's doesn't help the Polish economy. Did they forgot that the Polish economy is the best economy of Europe?
Cheers,
Pieter
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Post by Bonobo on Feb 27, 2013 20:46:44 GMT 1
Bo, That is sad to read, because for the Polish economy to continue going well, there must be Polish spending. It is important that Poles keep buying new Polish cars, televisions and washing machines, and that they keep their trust in Polish banks and financial institutions. It is important to stay positive, to keep working hard, to spend money to support the Polish economy, to invest in the economy, buy Polish stocks and doing so supporting the Polish financial market. The crisis in US/Europe has lasted for 4 years now. Poles managed to stay positive until now. It seems that they cannot hold on any longer. |
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Post by pjotr on Feb 27, 2013 23:13:49 GMT 1
Bo, That is sad to read, because for the Polish economy to continue going well, there must be Polish spending. It is important that Poles keep buying new Polish cars, televisions and washing machines, and that they keep their trust in Polish banks and financial institutions. It is important to stay positive, to keep working hard, to spend money to support the Polish economy, to invest in the economy, buy Polish stocks and doing so supporting the Polish financial market. The crisis in US/Europe has lasted for 4 years now. Poles managed to stay positive until now. It seems that they cannot hold on any longer. Bo, I keep hoping that the Polish internal market is strong enough and that neighboring countries keep importing Polish products. Ofcourse the world wide economical and financial crisis can not not effect Poland in the sense of foreign decrease of buying products, die to the lesser demand, but until now the storm left Poland alone. It seems that the flood is now standing at the Polish border. Cheers, Pieter |
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Post by tufta on Mar 1, 2013 17:57:42 GMT 1
Just today, Japan Credit Rating (the most 'conservative' of rating agencies) upgraded Poland to "A" for foreign currencies and to"A+" for Polish Z³oty. Good news! Also, recent report by HSBC globalconnections.hsbc.com/global/en/tools-data/trade-forecasts/plforecast Poland's export growth till 2050 as the strongest in Europe apart from Turkey. Chief of Polish National Bank (thus govenment-independent institution) Marek Belka stated that POland has the worst part behind, and expect Polish GDP growth in 2013 to reach 2% (in contast to EU institution which predicts just 1.2% growth, but still growth). Hope they are right!  |
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Post by pjotr on Mar 1, 2013 20:22:49 GMT 1
Just today, Japan Credit Rating (the most 'conservative' of rating agencies) upgraded Poland to "A" for foreign currencies and to"A+" for Polish Z³oty. Good news! Also, recent report by HSBC globalconnections.hsbc.com/global/en/tools-data/trade-forecasts/plforecast Poland's export growth till 2050 as the strongest in Europe apart from Turkey. Chief of Polish National Bank (thus govenment-independent institution) Marek Belka stated that POland has the worst part behind, and expect Polish GDP growth in 2013 to reach 2% (in contast to EU institution which predicts just 1.2% growth, but still growth). Hope they are right! I hope it with you. Anyway this is good news! |
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Post by tufta on Mar 9, 2013 10:16:41 GMT 1
Poland's solid fiscal policy credibility underpins A2 rating - Moody's March 8, 2013 Poland's recent set of GDP data wipe out any fears of recession and contribute to the country's solid fiscal policy credibility and favorable market perception, which underpin the sovereign’s A2 rating and stable outlook, rating agency Moody's said in a report.... newportal.warsawvoice.pl/ |
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Post by pjotr on Mar 9, 2013 20:59:32 GMT 1
Poland's solid fiscal policy credibility underpins A2 rating - Moody's March 8, 2013 Poland's recent set of GDP data wipe out any fears of recession and contribute to the country's solid fiscal policy credibility and favorable market perception, which underpin the sovereign’s A2 rating and stable outlook, rating agency Moody's said in a report.... newportal.warsawvoice.pl/Tufta and Bonobo, Poland shoudn't join the Euro to fast, because you are the only prosporous European economy. Poland should work on it's monetary policy, to get a strong and stabile złoty. Because the złoty right now is a respected currency, like the Danish Krone and the British pound. Having your own currency and thus financial and monetary independence has some advantages. For instance the Polish monetary authority can control the supply of money. It can target a rate of interest for the purpose of promoting economic growth and stability. The monetary authority has de facto control over monetary policy by controlling the central bank. The Polish finance minister oversees the treasury and national budget. He manages and determinate the fiscal policy. The President of the Polish Central bank, Narodowy Bank Polski, is appointed by the Sejm, at the request of the President of the Republic of Poland, for a term of six years. Apart from Marek Belka's function as the superior of the NBP staff, he is also the chairman of the Monetary Policy Council, the NBP Management Board and the Commission for Banking Supervision. Belka is also responsible for representing Poland in international banking and financial institutions. Narodowy Bank Polski, NBP, controls the issuing of Poland's currency, the złoty. The Central Bank is headquartered in Warsaw, and has branches in every major Polish town. The NBP represents Poland in the European System of Central Banks, an EU organization. The Narodowy Bank Polski is a public institution that manages the Polish state's currency, money supply, and interest rates. The Polish Central bank also oversees the commercial banking system of Poland. In contrast to a commercial bank, the Narodowy Bank Polski possesses a monopoly on increasing the nation's monetary base, and also prints the złoty, which is the nation's legal tender. Due to the złoty the Polish minister of finance and the Polish Central bank can regulate your deflation or inflation via monetary, fiscal and intrest rate measures. Other European countries, like the Netherlands, can not infuence the Euro with political or National central bank policies. That is the benefit of the złoty above the Euro. The złoty (golden) is a traditional Polish currency unit dating back to the Middle Ages. It is something to be proud of, also in the light of the financial and economical progress Poland had in the past 20 years. 1 Euro is 4.121150 złoty today and one US dollar is 3.168900 złoty. That makes the złoty a good currency for the export of Polish products, because a currency which is not to high in value is good for export. In the same time the złoty isn't extremely low, like for instance the Hungarian Forint, the Croatian Kuna or the Russian Ruble. The złoty is fine for now, and therefor don't hurry into the Euro. Stay monetary, financial, fiscal and interest independent. The current conservative Polish Minister of Finance, Jan Vincent-Rostowski, supports Poland joining the Euro, but following the European sovereign debt crisis, advocates waiting until " the Euro has become safe to join" . Cheers, Pieter |
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Post by Bonobo on Mar 9, 2013 23:35:32 GMT 1
Yes, Peter, zloty is ok but
Poland's unemployment rises further in February
08.03.2013 13:27
The level of unemployment in Poland rose to 14.4 percent in February, according to the Ministry of Labour. www.thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/129427,Polands-unemployment-rises-further-in-February |
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Post by tufta on Mar 12, 2013 7:07:30 GMT 1
Poland should work on it's monetary policy, to get a strong and stabile złoty. Exactly, and that's the line today. We need reforming (exactly along the lines of Maastricht criteria) no matter if there's a monetary union on the horizon of if there is none. It is not even sure if Eurozone will survive - I wonder what's your personal stance towards German AfD? They seem to want Germany to become Poland of European Union Very pro-EU but having doubts about Eurozone en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany |
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Post by pjotr on Mar 12, 2013 17:06:44 GMT 1
Tufta, Thanks for the news. To be honest I have to admid that I didn't hear about them before I read your post. So you are my source and news. From a democratic point of view, for the pluriformity of the German and the European democracy it is good that they exist and that they are critical towards the German Christian-democratic CDU, the German rightwing liberals FDP and the German Social-democratic Labour party SPD. In a way they are critical towards the German Green party. (German: Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) They win't support the Eurosceptic Linkspartei, because that is a merger party of the radical left wing of the SPD and the former Easr-German communist SED (which became PDS, party for Democratic Socialism, after the SED was disbanded) I read the Dutch wikipedia about the Alternative für Deutschland too. Next to the English one you provided me. Alternative für Deutschland It is a good initiative of former members of the christian-democratic CDU. Let's call them CDU dissidents or break away's. It is a is a eurosceptic, liberal and conservative movement in Germany. The movement is supported mostly by less prominent German economists and has announced plans to establish itself as a political party on 11 March 2013 with a pre-founding convention in Oberursel near Frankfurt. The founding convention will take place on 13 April 2013 in Berlin and it is planned to compete in the federal election in September 2013. According to opinion polls, about 25% of the German electorate may consider voting for a party that advocates a German exit from the eurozone.  Board of Directors Dr. Konrad Adam, born. May 1, 1942 in Wuppertal, studied Old languages (Latin and Greek), History and philosophy in Tübingen, München and Kiel. Worked many years for dpa in Kiel and Hamburg, after that for the German quality newspaper, the Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung, was from 2000 until 2008 Chiefcorrespondent of the "Welt" newspaper in Berlin. He wrote several books. Prof. Dr. Charles Blankart Alexander Gauland, printer and publisher ( de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Gauland ) The party's leading members include Konrad Adam, Charles Blankart, Alexander Gauland, Wilhelm Hankel, Hans-Olaf Henkel, Stefan Homburg, Bernd Lucke, Karl Schachtschneider, and Joachim Starbatty, most of whom are economics professors and/or former members or supporters of the Christian Democratic Union (Angela Merkel's CDU). Hankel and Schachtschneider have both signed complaints based on the euro area and submitted to the German Constitutional Court. Goals- The Maastricht Treaty must be respected: no mutual guarantees for debts of other countries. - It should be politically and legally possible for countries to leave the eurozone and to re-emerge in alternative monetary unions or establish parallel currencies. (comment Pieter: " I think of the old Mark-Gulden connection, the link between the German and Dutch pre-Euro currencies. I think that link was an example for the Euro.") - Transfer of sovereignty should be legitimized by a prior plebiscite. The latest ZDF poll shows that 65pc of Germans think the Euro is damaging, and 49pc think Germany would be better off outside the EU. This is no doubt " soft", yet what is clear is that the all-party consensus on the Euro gives voters nowhere to turn. The initiators of AfD include: the economist Bernd Lucke, the former journalist and political columnist Konrad Adam, and the former secretary of the Hessen Chancellery, Alexander Gauland. A long line of professors, economists, doctors, and other academics have since joined the initiative, including Professor Wilhelm Hankel. Personal comment Pieter: I like this new German party or democratic civilian movement for the sake of democracy and the fact that they will give opposition towards the German political status quo of Pro-European democratic parties in the German parlaiment, the Reichstag. For me personally they are to eurosceptic. But that is my personal, subjective, one vote, opinion. I think that the dismantlement of the Eurozone, with the Euro as currency will be to expensive and not good for the internal market. Many people were glad that they were rid of all that old currencies. Other people longed for the old currency and complained that after the introduction of the Euro in Januari 2002, the products became more expensive. They were true. In december 2001 a Dutch brown bread costed 2 Gulden. In januari the Euro was introduced and one had to pay with the Euro. 1 Euro was 2.2 Gulden back then. In Januari 2002 the same bread costed 2 € , which meant that the same bread costed 2 X 2.2 Gulden is 4.4 Gulden. That meant that the prices in one month went up 200%. Next to that the Euro countries lost their monetarian independence, and could not control the currency anymore for the innermarket and financial-economical means like before. Complicated European conferences of the ministers of financial affairs determined the course of the Euro from now on, together with the Central bankers and the financial markets. The Euro was to big for one country, let alone 20 countries to handle. Cheers, Pieter |
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Post by pjotr on Mar 19, 2013 21:06:53 GMT 1
This movies are two years old, but the message maybe still is the same?
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Post by tufta on Mar 20, 2013 7:04:15 GMT 1
But what is the message? In short? Because right now all I can comment - before watching the movies - is that I see two videos, one from Russia and the other from Germany - in English. I understand that the aim of Germans and Russians broadcasting in English is to get their point across to the English-speaking world, which they are of course fully entitled to try to do. |
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Post by tufta on Mar 20, 2013 7:12:47 GMT 1
I think that the dismantlement of the Eurozone, with the Euro as currency will be to expensive and not good for the internal market. Pieter, I think there's a kind of antimony inside core eurozone countries, and in the mainstream, pro-EU, pro monetary union. Let's call them those countries which did not live above their means - like Germany, Netherlands, Finnland, Austria. From the one hand they want to keep the euro, because it stenghtens their economy (in spite of lack of popular knowledge of that fact) on the other they don't want a transfer union - as in the US example exists, because EU is not enough united politically. Both points are valid. Before decisions are made how to overcome this discrepancy - thus what is the real future of the eurozeone, I think we shouldn't expect Poland to make her decision - to join or not to join. |
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Post by pjotr on Mar 21, 2013 0:42:21 GMT 1
But what is the message? In short? Because right now all I can comment - before watching the movies - is that I see two videos, one from Russia and the other from Germany - in English. I understand that the aim of Germans and Russians broadcasting in English is to get their point across to the English-speaking world, which they are of course fully entitled to try to do. We have our Polish, Dutch, English, Belgian, French, American and other not German and not Russian sources though. It is nice to have these English language German and Russian chanals next to all the others. They are just an element in the international media network of tv chanals and news blogs and websites. |
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Post by pjotr on Mar 21, 2013 0:49:03 GMT 1
I think that the dismantlement of the Eurozone, with the Euro as currency will be to expensive and not good for the internal market. Pieter, I think there's a kind of antimony inside core eurozone countries, and in the mainstream, pro-EU, pro monetary union. Let's call them those countries which did not live above their means - like Germany, Netherlands, Finnland, Austria. From the one hand they want to keep the euro, because it stenghtens their economy (in spite of lack of popular knowledge of that fact) on the other they don't want a transfer union - as in the US example exists, because EU is not enough united politically. Both points are valid. Before decisions are made how to overcome this discrepancy - thus what is the real future of the eurozeone, I think we shouldn't expect Poland to make her decision - to join or not to join. Tufta, Maybe the Future of the Eurozone is a core group of countries which did not live above their means - like Germany, Netherlands, Finnland, Austria and probably Poland, the Czech republic and the Baltic states too. Would it not be more natural if the Southern-European countries would have their own system with their own currency? I am not so strict in thinking that the EU of the Euro must be a big monolythical block of countries from Western-, Northern-, Central-, Eastern and Southern-Europe. The West-European and Central-European have more in common with eachother than with the Southern-European countries with their big spending and corrupt systems. The Central- and Westrn-European countries are more fiscal responsable, aware of the fact that they have to reduce their state depth, work towards the 2% norm and reduce the costs of government spending. Cheers, Pieter |
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Post by tufta on Mar 21, 2013 7:21:43 GMT 1
Pieter, I am sure that such smaller eurozone would be managed financially as soundly as Poland, but it will lose one of the main qualities the 'large eurozone', preferably all-EU28 has. Really huge united market with one currency would make Europe a heavy weight player worlwide, capable to resist the economical pressure from Asia, capable of cooperation on eye level with the us, capable even to potentially ovetake the role as world reserve currency. The 'small' eurozone consisting of just Germany, Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Baltic states would be just a 'local heavyweight', 'Greater Germany' of the modern times with satellites in Eastern Baltic. A situation that a lot of Poles and a lot of Frenchmen would find hard to support or even accept in the long run - due to historical reasons. Even if 'Germany proper' would be able to self-restrain itself - which is possible but not absolutely sure - a simple potential of such new 'Greater Germany' losing self-restrain would cause tension in EU, thus leading to breaking it and return to the Concert of Europe phase of development. I doubt most of the Poles or Czechs would ever want to join such a new, smaller eurozone. Czechs are very ambivalent about the EU, not to mention the EZ, while in Poland currently only 30 percent are for joining the monetary union. IF the crisis in the eurozone will last longer that figure would drop farther. And if eurozone splits into smaller entities- yet farther. So from my perspective - the future is large eurozone (possibly without the most evident transgressor of the rules) or no eurozone at all.
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Post by pjotr on Mar 24, 2013 19:32:51 GMT 1
Tufta, I agree with you that such a smaller eurozone will lose one of the main qualities it has, the ' large eurozone', of the EU28. The huge united market of the large ' United Europe of 28 nations' with one currency would make Europe a heavy weight player worlwide if it manages to lower the wages, the national income taxes, property taxes, value added tax ((VAT) and the costs of European production. ( pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Podatek_od_towarów_i_usług ) It will be capable to resist the economical pressure from Asia if it has a direct trade line and thus import & export relationship which is balanced. There are European quality products the Chinese, Koreans, Taiwanese, Thai, Japanese and other asians want. Not only Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Renault, Peugeot, Citroën, Siemens, Krupp, Tefal, Bosch and Moulinex, but also Polish, Czech, Dutch, Danish, Belgian ( Flemish and Wallon) and Italian products. From the other hand we import on a massive scale Chinese, Japanese and Korean products. The cooperation on eye level with the USA will continue due to the transatlantic orientation of many European governments, corporate parties and and European businesspeople. Think about the role American products like Apple, Microsoft, Adobe, Coca Cola, Star Bucks, Google, Warner Brothers ( Time Warner Inc./ Walt Disney), Intel, General Motors and the Fox Entertainment Group. Products which are sold in Poland, the Netherlands, Germany and the rest of Europe. (At home I work with my Apple laptop and I-pad and at work with Microsoft based PC's. I drink Coca Cola, and watch movies of Hollywood next to art house cinema. The better Hollywood productions. I like HBO series like Six Feet Under and Carnivale.) pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/HBOYes, I think that the Euro on the long term will be capable to ovetake the role as world reserve currency (replacing the doller maybe). In some places the dollar is already replaced by the Euro as international trade deal currency. You are right that a ' small' eurozone consisting of just 7 or 8 states would be just a ' local heavyweight', and would not have the competitive power China, I ndia or Southern-America ( Brasil) have. I know that a lot of Europeans would oppose a small exclusive Eurozone, lead and dominated by Germany. Not only the Poles and the French. I don't know if most of the Poles or Czechs would ever want to join such a new, smaller eurozone. Many Poles and Czechs live and work in Germany, in Eastern-Germany and Western-Germany. They know that Germany is the most dominant and stabile European economical force with it's 80 million Germans, and next to that the German speaking Austrians (8 million) and Swiss (The Swiss German part of Switzerland: 4,6 million) I know that many people in the Czech Republic are Europe sceptic, and see or witness a ' collective' pressure on the European nations by Brussels and the Pro-Euro Countries. The Czechs are very ambivalent about the EU, not to mention the Euro, because of their historical experiances with historical cooperations ( 1938, Munich; Prague Spring, 1968 and etc.) I understand that in Poland there is limited support ( 33%) for joining the monetary union, due to the crisis in the eurozone and the instabile future of the Euro at this moment. If the eurozone splits into smaller entities, the power, status and value of the Euro as a continental currency will drop to a historic low point. The future can be a large eurozone if the quarreling European politicians, central bankers and key players reach essential agreements, and lay the monetary foundations for a stabile and large Eurozone which can expand. We are on the same track Tufta. But it will be hard for Europe to catch up with the USA, China, India and Brasil. And the African continent will become more important in the 21th century too, due to it's natural resources, production and huge innermarket. The African Union might expand further. The African Union is a union consisting of 54 African states. (Only Morocco is not a member) One of the aims of the AU is to accelerate the political and socio-economic integration of the continent. The Chinese involvement in Africa has modernized many African nations. The Chinese built Airports, railroads, highways, and play an important role in the exploitation of African oil, and natural resources like diamonds, uranium, and other important natural resources. Next to the Chinese the former colonial powers France, Great-Britian and Portugal are stil active there, and due to the unemployment a lot of Portuguese go to former Portuguese colonies like Angola, Mozambique and Guinea-Bissau to live and work there. Nex to that you have a lot of Indians (India), Pakistani, Lebanese (often Christian) and Israeli people who form middle classes in African countries and are involved in trade, Retail ( Handel detaliczny ) and local development. Africa is poor now, but might develop into a different direction in the near future. Many Africans migrate to China now, work and study there and are involved in trade there. Plane loads of Chinese goods are imported from China to Nigeria by Nigerian businessmen who are in China and who have their contacts in Nigeria for instance. The huge united market of the 28 would play a role in the world again if it manages to improve further the European bording crossing infrastructure for transport, passenger transfer and business travel and traffic. For the sake of economical progress, financial benefits, innovation, and our shared future we Europeans should encourage high quality professional immigration. Europe has an aging problem and therefor Poland, the Netherlands and Germany should attract the brightest, smartest and best Indian, Chinese, Russian, American, Canadian and even African people to be trained in our Research institutes, universities, private collages and company and multi-national training facilities. The stupidity of damaging, failing and counter productive attitude of Europe is the fact that it is becoming a closed isolationalist fortress. This white (caucacian), European xenophobia based, racist, fear of the unknown, attitude, measures, policies and implementation of these measures damages our future in the world. When you look at Brasil, you see a country which was open to migration of people of all parts of the globe, and today you have a perfect mix. Brasilian women are so beautiful due to the racial and ethnic mix, they have. Mixes of Mestizo and Mulatto people, and the further mixing of white, native Indian, African, Middle eastern and other races creates the 'New Southern-American, Latin, Portugese' Brasilian culture and economical succes. The succesful three in the world are China, India and Brasil. In the past Europe attracted the wrong kind of immigrants, today we do not manage to attract the needed, smart, educated and specialist immigrants we need. Germany (despite xenophobia and attacks in East-Germany) managed to attract Indian ICT-specialists in the recent past (ninetees and early 21th century). Poland could attract bright Ukrianians and Russians and polonize them, like the Dutch did with the Turkish and Moroccan people. (without succes, by the way) Poland would benefit from ' brain' ( human capital) import, because people will be willing to become Poles, and in the same time add their 'national' flavor to the Polish society, culture and nation. Europe can only be a global player if it manages politically, diplomatically, financially, monetary and economically to integrate new EU members fast and in a pragmatic way. (Ukraine will be the most important new asset) The tragedy of Europe is that the EU does not ' live' amongst it's citizens, workers, students, middle classes and even 50% of it's politicians. Because probably most of the Europeans are interested in their city, town or village only. Most people are focussed on their region and their country, nation, national language, ethnic culture ( which is connected to that national language), with it's modern ' tribal', ' clan' and ' people' cults, orientation, trends, affiliations, connections, roots, traditions and customs. An average citizen of Arnhem first feels connected to Arnhem, secondly feels connected to the Gelderland province (neighboring cities and towns like Nijmegen, Apeldoorn, Ede, Dieren, Doesburg, Zupthen; to go shopping, for entertainment -horeca or cinema- or just to be out of the city -Arnhem- for a moment) and than they feel connected to the Netherlands. They will like Germany, because they live close to the German border and petrol is cheaper in Germany, and some quality products, beer, other alcoholic beaverages and some food products. They go on holiday to Turkey, Greece, Spain, Portugal, the Canary Islands (Tenerife), Ibiza or Majorca. (But will not connect to that country nor it's culture) Many people are neighbourhood/subburb, town, social class, political party and movement based. It doesn't matter whether they are rightwing, centre-right, centre-left or left. Because the old paradime of rightwing = national and leftwing =internationalism, doesn't count anymore. Leftwing socialists can be nationalistic isolationalists with xenophobic elements, centre-left social democrats can be national chauvinists in the sense that they are ethnic-National-patriotic oriented. Rightwing populism and nationalism, conservative liberalism and isolationalism, xenophobia and aversion towards everything which is not domestic has changed Western-Europe in the last 15 years. Europe is segregated by language cultures, which create invisible, but centuries old borders. The borders are open and we can travel everywhere, but that open borders and changing financial-economical reality does not change the reality of the regional and national situations and mindsets (of the European people, who are national and regional rooted). The politicians, journalists, economists, businessmen- and women, teachers, professors, parents (of the children and teenagers of today) can't change that fact. The Economy and open market of the United 28 countries will exist and continue to exist if the united politicians, central-bankers, parlaiments, and people (voters) of that countries are willing to keep cooperating, reforming and working together to maintain that United Europe, Schengen zone, and a large inner European market without borders. Cheers, Pieter |
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Post by tufta on Mar 25, 2013 11:23:57 GMT 1
Very true Pieter. From my perspective I can say that Poles in a way are among those folk who are the most European in the now no more en vogue, multicultural, transnational, mobile way - somehow resembling the US-way. Many young people feel very badly though that this vision the believed in turned out to be a 'old-EU's' mirage and at the times of crisis, time of trial, 'the Wessies' turned nationalist. For instance Netherland to me was always a synonym of liberalism, openess. I asked my elder son a while back what are his associations (he's benn to NL) and he replied, jokingly as he does usually: I can't really say, dad, as two contrasting things come to my mind, trawa i konserwa. The first is easy to translate -it's grass, the second more difficult, but you will get a feeling - it stands literallly for 'canning' or 'a can' but sounds similiarly to 'conservative' - so it's used in Piolish to depict something closed and or conservative.
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Post by pjotr on Mar 26, 2013 0:32:00 GMT 1
Very true Pieter. From my perspective I can say that Poles in a way are among those folk who are the most European in the now no more en vogue, multicultural, transnational, mobile way - somehow resembling the US-way. Many young people feel very badly though that this vision the believed in turned out to be a 'old-EU's' mirage and at the times of crisis, time of trial, 'the Wessies' turned nationalist. For instance Netherland to me was always a synonym of liberalism, openess. I asked my elder son a while back what are his associations (he's benn to NL) and he replied, jokingly as he does usually: I can't really say, dad, as two contrasting things come to my mind, trawa i konserwa. The first is easy to translate -it's grass, the second more difficult, but you will get a feeling - it stands literallly for 'canning' or 'a can' but sounds similiarly to 'conservative' - so it's used in Piolish to depict something closed and or conservative. Tufta, It is true that the Polish government, diplomacy, Polish art and cultural circles, students, yuppies and intelligentsia are one of the greatest supporters of the European idea and the continuation of the European project. Poles are everywhere in Europe and therefor learned many European languages, cultures, peoples and mentalities. They brought that back home and in that way Poland has a knowledge and experiance with the European continent on many levels, other Europeans doesn't have or have less. The newest Polish generation is Modern, has travelled and knows the world via internet, tv, flying, crossing the border by car and train, and spending much time abroad (living, studying and/or working in other countries) Your elder son knows the Netherlands by experiance because he has been there. But watch out, it is easy to get a stereotypical view of a country, if you have been there shortly or to a certain area of the country. I don't know where he has been and what his experiances were in the Netherlands. There are quite a few Poles who decided to stay in the Netherlands, because they liked it here, because they found a job here, married with Dutch persons or studied here. I hope that you are true and that Poles are European in a multicultural, transnational, mobile way. Cosmopolitan, tolerant, genuine interested in other cultures, languages and people from abroad. That is the same my mother told me about the attitude of Poles in communist Poland in the fiftees and sixtees. Like Americans and the Dutch Poles are individualists, who in the same time have strongly developped community and social lives. I can understand the disappointment of young Poles about their image of the open, free minded, tolerant, multi-cultural and cosmopolitan Western-Europe turned out to be a fata morgana. 'The Wessies' turned nationalist due to mass immigration in the seventees and eightees, an uncertainty about the world with terrorism, organised crime (which crosses borders), a United Europe which for a large part is an abstract idea to them (because Brussels and the European politicis of the European commission, European parlaiment and European legislation is far away from them). I hope, Tufta, that you don't look in a black and white manner to the Netherlands. Because next to black and white there is the nuance of gray (the shadow) and the colors (red, blue, green, yellow, orange, purple, beige, antracite, pink and brown) That old Netherland of liberalism and openess still exists to a certain extend, because the people who stood for that are stil there. The problem is that next to them there are the dissatisfied, the frustrated, irritated, disillusioned, closed, small minded people who are governed by fear, resentment, apathy and national conservatism in it's leftwing and rightwing forms. Your elder son's discription of his associations with the Netherlands is Ironical in it's wit: " Cannabis and conservatism." If he means 'soft drugs' with grass. (because next to Cannabis we are a Green country of grasslands due to the much rain which falls here) The Netherlands have become more closed and conservative since the late ninetees, due to the emergence of Rightwing populism, regionalism, the migrant 'problem' as an issue, and the fact that the conservative wing of politics grew into existence. Fact was that before there wasn;t a real conservative or rightwing conservative liberal movement. Free market liberals were for a long time the most rightwing fraction in parlaiment next to the rightwing fundamentalist Calvinist party which exists, but is marginal. The PVV as a xenophobe, reactionary and anti-migrant, anti-Islam, anti-Central- and Eastern-European, Anti-European and anti-Turkey party changed the Duthc political landscape. They lost votes but are stil there. Geert Wilders inherited the legacy, part of the ideas and ideology of Pim Fortuyn's movement. That changed the Netherlands. pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pim_Fortuyn / en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pim_Fortuynpl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geert_Wilderspl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frits_Bolkestein |
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Post by Bonobo on May 27, 2013 19:08:37 GMT 1
Oops,
April unemployment highest in five years
24.05.2013 13:08
The level of unemployment in Poland this April was the highest in five years, according to the country's Central Statistical Office (GUS).
According to GUS's figures, the unemployment level was at 14 percent in April, only fractionally better than the 14.3 percent registered in March.
The figures for the last few months show that unemployment has risen by about 1 percent compared with the the same months in 2012.
Economist Monika Kurtek told Polish Radio that she does not see any significant change for the better for the time being.
“Some jobs will appear, but they are only seasonal because companies cannot afford to hire workers for a long period of time,” she said.
Meanwhile, GUS has also registered that retail sales in April fell by 0.2 percent in relation to April 2012.
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Post by jeanne on Dec 24, 2013 0:54:59 GMT 1
Oops,
April unemployment highest in five years
24.05.2013 13:08
The level of unemployment in Poland this April was the highest in five years, according to the country's Central Statistical Office (GUS).
According to GUS's figures, the unemployment level was at 14 percent in April, only fractionally better than the 14.3 percent registered in March.
The figures for the last few months show that unemployment has risen by about 1 percent compared with the the same months in 2012.
Economist Monika Kurtek told Polish Radio that she does not see any significant change for the better for the time being.
“Some jobs will appear, but they are only seasonal because companies cannot afford to hire workers for a long period of time,” she said.
Meanwhile, GUS has also registered that retail sales in April fell by 0.2 percent in relation to April 2012. I hope unemployment is not the problem causing Bonobo to vacate this forum! I hope his students are still receiving the benefit of his teaching talents! |
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Post by jeanne on May 15, 2014 20:58:36 GMT 1
Wondering how things are going economically for those of you in Poland right now...
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