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Post by Bonobo on Oct 1, 2008 20:02:29 GMT 1
The shield has been discussed for over a year now. The deal has been reached and it is going to be built. As we are going to hear about it many times to come, a seperate thread will come in handy.
The current issue is: Will Russia eventually swallow the bitter pill?
A Polish Missile Crisis?
By ELLEN C. BRYSON
Harvard Crimson, MA
Sunday, September 28, 2008
In light of recent statements and actions from Russia, the United
States should be more careful in its diplomatic relations with its
former nemesis. A recent comment made by President Dmitry Medvedev is characteristic of his country's current attitudes: he states that Russia is not afraid of "the prospect of a new Cold War." This remark comes in the context of Russia's recent conflict with Georgia and its threats to bomb proposed U.S. missile sites in Poland. These sites, which would be part of a missile defense system that the U.S. plans to install in Poland and the Czech Republic, would defend Europe against a possible threat from "rogue states," namely Iran and North Korea. Even if the missiles that the U.S. is planning to install would actually be used as intended, the current plans for the missile defense system should be either altered or abandoned altogether because they will increase the current tension between the U.S. and Russia.
The decision to install the main missile site in Poland, which is
one of the NATO countries closest to Moscow, has incensed Russia,
and it has threatened to destroy the missile site, if it are set up.
While the missile system, as currently designed, would be
ineffective against the Russian nuclear arsenal, the U.S. has
promised Poland, in return for allowing the missile installation, a
Patriot missile defense system, which would be aimed at Russia and
have the capability to shoot down military planes as well as
missiles. Russia sees the missile deal as an opportunity for the
U.S. to increase its military presence near Russian borders. Once
the system is installed, Russia argues, it would be easy for the
U.S. to use the system to target Russia.
Installing the missiles is a touchy issue not only because of the
geographic proximity of nations to Russia, but also because of their
former status as satellites of the U.S.S.R. During the Cold War,
Poland and the Czech Republic were part of the Warsaw Pact, which
the U.S.S.R. formed in response to NATO. After the Cold War ended,
however, they aligned themselves with Western Europe, and as of
2007, six of the eight founding Warsaw Pact states had joined NATO and the European Union. Although NATO is no longer officially an enemy of Russia, Russia's opposition to the NATO membership bids of Georgia and Ukraine last April suggests that it still views NATO with distrust, and that it desires to keep the remainder of its
former bloc from aligning themselves with the West. By installing
missiles in former Warsaw Pact states, the United States may be seen as pitting Russia's former allies against it.
The missile deal poses further problems because it not only covers
the physical installation of the missile defense system, but also
sets up a pact of "mutual commitment" between Poland and the U.S. to aid each other "in case of military or other threats" with greater speed than NATO would provide. This assurance of mutual aid is backed up by the Patriot missiles, which, while they are defensive, would allow Poland to respond to a Russian attack without needing outside assistance. The U.S. still claims that this missile deal is no threat to Russia, but Russia was clearly on the minds of Polish officials when they signed the deal after Russian troops entered Georgia last month. At the time, Polish president Lech Kaczynski stated, "[Russia is after] Georgia today, Ukraine tomorrow, and
Poland may be next." Whatever American intentions may be, Poland
views this deal as an extra assurance, beyond its membership in
NATO, against Russian aggression. With a prospective recipient of
U.S. arms taking such a stance, it should not be surprising that
Russia views this deal as threatening.
If Russia carried out its threat to bomb the missile sites, then
either the United States or NATO would have to respond because of
treaty obligations. Even if the missile deal itself does not provoke
conflict, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has warned that the
deal will lead to "an inevitable arms race" between Russia and the
U.S. The U.S. should avoid such provocations as much as possible,
without making significant sacrifices to its own security and that
of its allies.
Some analysts have questioned the military necessity of installing
this defense system in Eastern Europe. The U.S. already has a
missile system that can defend it against the current threat from
North Korea, and E.U. officials have questioned whether Europe faces
an immediate threat that calls for a U.S.-run defense system. In
April, however, NATO declared its support for the missile defense
system, so if Iran's nuclear capabilities are truly an urgent
threat, it should be possible to install the system in a NATO member
state farther from Russia's borders than Poland the Czech Republic
are.
In light of recent tensions with Russia, the U.S. should avoid
antagonizing Russia without very good reason. The U.S. should not
install an unnecessary missile system that risks sparking an
otherwise unrelated conflict. If the missiles are truly necessary,
then the U.S. should plan to install the missiles somewhere they
will not incite Russia to start a needless war. Perhaps Russia is
unafraid of another Cold War, but conflict rarely occurs without two
willing participants.
Ellen C. Bryson '11, a Crimson editorial editor, is a history
concentrator in Cabot House. She spent this summer in Poland as a
WorldTeach volunteer.
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Post by Bonobo on Oct 1, 2008 20:03:06 GMT 1
The pill is so bitter for Russia to swallow...
The shield is going to be built in Poland and Czech Republic.
Russia demands that her officers should be allowed an entry into the restricted area.
Poland demands that Polish officers should be allowed an entry to Russian bases in Kaliningrad enclave at the Polish northern border.
Russia says Polish demand is illogical.
Strange.
Russia Accuses Czech Rep and Poland of Lack of Logic
Gazeta Wyborcza
2008-09-29
Moscow is proposing a European summit to discuss a collective
security system. It is also accusing Prague and Warsaw of 'lack of
fundamental logic', as Czech Republic and Poland don't want Russian officers in the planned US missile defence bases in their territory.
According to Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, speaking
at the UN session Saturday, the 'existing architecture of security
in Europe did not pass the strength test in recent events", that is,
during the Georgian crisis. Mr Lavrov thus repeated the words of
Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, who said the same following the Georgian war.
Mr Medvedev said then that in dialoguing with Moscow, its Western
partners should take into account that Russia has its 'zone of
privileged interests', including, his wording suggested, the former
Soviet republics.
One of the key themes of the Moscow-proposed security summit would be the US missile defence installations in Europe.
Meanwhile, the Russian foreign Ministry sharply criticised Prague
and Warsaw yesterday for their position on Russian officers'
proposed presence in the missile and radar bases the US wants to
site in Poland and the Czech Republic. The statement was issued in
response to a recent Associated Press report from Prague, according to which Czech Foreign Minister Tomas Pojar and Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Przemys³aw Grudziñski said their countries could agree to Russian inspections at the bases only on a reciprocal basis.
In a special communiqué, the Russian Foreign Ministry expresses
surprise that the Poles and Czechs talk to Russia through the press.
The statement states categorically that Russian experts' presence at the missile defence bases 'cannot be subject to any negotiations'
and that 'no conditions' can be made on the issue. It adds that
Moscow wants permanent presence rather than just temporary
inspections, which US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates offered
Moscow a year ago.
Then the idea, because of the West, started changing and, as the
Russian Foreign Ministry's statement reads, 'evolved into degenerate forms'. The most recent development in this evolution are, according to Moscow, Poland and Czech Republic's demands for their officers to be allowed to inspect Russian missile launch sites or military bases in the Kaliningrad enclave. Such demands, the statement says, reflect a 'lack of fundamental logic' and show that Poland and Czech Republic 'do not need' any dialogue with Russia.
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Post by valpomike on Oct 1, 2008 20:42:09 GMT 1
Most of this is to deep for me, but we don't need Russia telling us, or Poland what to do. They want to act like they were strong again, when we know that they are not.
Mike
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Post by Bonobo on Nov 9, 2008 15:56:47 GMT 1
Government defends anti-missile deal
thenews.pl
08.11.2008
Foreign Minister Rados³aw Sikorski presented parliament details of
the deployment of the anti-missile shield in Poland, Friday,
stressing the importance of the American - Polish deal.
Sikorski argued that it is crucial for the security of Poland, Europe
and the United States that the system be put in place.
He was supported by Pawe³ Gras, from the ruling Civic Platform
deputy. "The antimissile shield serves, above all, a defence function
and it doesn't pose any threat to neighbouring countries, including
Russia," said Gras.
According to Sikorski , the installation of the missile shield is
beneficial for Poland. As a result of tightening relations with the
US, Poland is to receive help any case of a ballistic missile attack.
"They have also pledged to modernize the Polish Armed Forces,"
concluded Gras.
But opposition MPs claimed that the success of the negotiations with Washington should be split between two governments - the present one under Donald Tusk and the previous government under Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
Former Minister of the National Defence, Aleksander Szczyg³o from the Law and Justice, accused Civic Platform of delaying the conclusion to the negotiations so as to be able to take all the credit.
The Democratic Left Alliance deputies, on the other hand, remain
against the deal and called for a national referendum to be held.
Grzegorz Napieralski, the party's leader, strongly criticized
Sikorski's speech, saying that he didn't take note of the present
situation in the States, where a new president-elect may have a
different perspective on the anti-missile shield.
Obama's first test: Polish missiles?
The Financial Times
November 7 2008
Gideon Rachman: During the US presidential election campaign, Joe
Biden, the vice-presidential candidate, warned rather injudiciously
that world leaders would test Barack Obama's mettle within six months of him taking office. Well, it doesn't seem to have taken them that long. On the very day of Obama's election, the Russian government announced plans to deploy cruise missiles in Kaliningrad, a tiny Russian enclave that borders Poland.
The Russians deploying missiles in a way that threatens US strategic interests and poses a test for a new, young, charismatic president - what does that remind you of? JFK and Cuba, of course. A few months ago I heard Robert Kagan - an adviser to John McCain, Republican candidate - argue that inexperienced and liberal presidents are more likely to end up in dangerous international confrontations because hostile foreigners are more likely to put them to the test, and the new president is going to feel the need to show that he is tough. Eisenhower got through eight years without a truly dangerous confrontation with the Russians. But Kennedy had the Cuba missile crisis.
With any luck, however, the Polish missile crisis won't get anywhere
near that dangerous. First, the Russian timing is slightly off. Obama
doesn't take office until mid-January. By then the crisis might have
been resolved or the Americans might have got used to the idea of the new Russian deployment. Second, the missiles are actually going to be deployed on Russian, rather than Cuban, soil. That obviously makes a big difference.
But the Russians have still miscalculated. I know that there was
debate in Democratic party circles about the wisdom of the anti-
missile system that the Americans are deploying in Poland and the
Czech Republic, which the Russians are so narked about. But there is no way that the Americans or the Poles will back down now, In fact, there was no way they could back down after the Russian invasion of Georgia. The real debate in Obama circles will not be about whether to withdraw the missile system from Poland - it will be about whether to deploy Nato troops and assets in the Baltic states and so heighten tensions with Russia still further.
Obama denies Poland missile vow
US missile interceptor test (file pic)
US President-elect Barack Obama has not given a commitment to go ahead with plans to build part of a US missile defence system in Poland, an aide says.
He was speaking after Polish President Lech Kaczynski's office said a pledge had been made during a phone conversation between the two men.
But Mr Obama's foreign policy adviser, Denis McDonough, denied this.
Russia opposes the US scheme and has announced plans to deploy missiles on Poland's border as a counter-measure.
On Friday, EU leaders said the decision would not contribute to creating a climate of confidence or to the improvement of security.
'No commitment'
In a statement published on his website on Saturday, Poland's president said Mr Obama had "emphasised the importance of the strategic partnership of Poland and the United States and expressed hope in the continuation of political and military co-operation between our countries."
"He also said that the missile defence project would continue," the statement added.
When asked about the declaration, McDonough said that the US president-elect had had "a good conversation" with Mr Kaczynski about the American-Polish alliance and discussed missile defence, but "made no commitment on it".
"His position is as it was throughout the campaign, that he supports deploying a missile defence system when the technology is proved to be workable," Mr McDonough told the Associated Press.
In the past, Mr Obama has said he wants to review the plans for a missile defence system in central Europe to ensure it would be effective and not target Russia.
But the BBC's Adam Easton in Warsaw says the Russian government believes the plan to locate 10 interceptor missiles in northern Poland and a tracking radar in the Czech Republic will do exactly that.
In his first state of the nation address on Wednesday, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said Moscow would neutralise the system by deploying short-range missiles in its western enclave of Kaliningrad on Poland's border.
The US military insists the shield is incapable of destroying Russian rockets and is designed solely to guard against missile attack by so-called "rogue states", such as Iran.
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gigi
Kindergarten kid
Posts: 1,470
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Post by gigi on Nov 9, 2008 16:03:15 GMT 1
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Post by Bonobo on Nov 9, 2008 17:14:59 GMT 1
You have in mind the literal meaning of the picture, i.e., a can full of worms, or a deeper meaning of fishing in troubled waters??
Or, instead of building the shield, Obama will go fishing???
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Post by valpomike on Nov 9, 2008 17:21:36 GMT 1
Poland must just tell Russia to go fishing.
Mike
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gigi
Kindergarten kid
Posts: 1,470
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Post by gigi on Nov 9, 2008 17:30:12 GMT 1
You have in mind the literal meaning of the picture, i.e., a can full of worms, or a deeper meaning of fishing in troubled waters?? Or, instead of building the shield, Obama will go fishing??? Dwa może były zamykane wczoraj, teraz nowy jed otwierany dziś. |
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Post by valpomike on Nov 9, 2008 17:36:54 GMT 1
Gigi,
It is great that you can post in Polish, but is very unfair to us who can not read, speak or write Polish. Tell us what you said.
Mike
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Post by Bonobo on Nov 9, 2008 20:46:10 GMT 1
Gigi, It is great that you can post in Polish, but is very unfair to us who can not read, speak or write Polish. Tell us what you said. Mike Yes, Gigi, can you write in a language that everybody can understand??!! ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D Mike and I have problems..... |
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Post by tufta on Nov 9, 2008 21:38:51 GMT 1
Gigi, It is great that you can post in Polish, but is very unfair to us who can not read, speak or write Polish. Tell us what you said. Mike Yes, Gigi, can you write in a language that everybody can understand??!! ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D Mike and I have problems..... Strange, but I undestood it perefectly  Gigi is very politely and intelligently pointing out that no longer than yesterday you;ve been stopping some... misunderstandings 'tween the most politically engaged members of the forum,while today you are trying to incite another knife-fight, Booooo |
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Post by Bonobo on Nov 9, 2008 22:03:56 GMT 1
Strange, but I undestood it perefectly Gigi is very politely and intelligently pointing out that no longer than yesterday you;ve been stopping some... misunderstandings 'tween the most politically engaged members of the forum,while today you are trying to incite another knife-fight, Booooo Aaaaa... I see!! Silly me! ;D ;D ;D ;D The Polish used by Gigi was almost perfect indeed. I didn`t catch the allusion..... If that`s the point, I must disagree. There is a substantial difference - Obama is solely an American problem and can/should be closed without detriment to our Polish Forum, while the shield is a Polish problem primarily. Discussing the shield we don`t risk any arguments, I suppose. My opinion is neutral on it. I don`t care so much. How about you?? |
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Post by Bonobo on Nov 9, 2008 22:24:26 GMT 1
Poland must just tell Russia to go fishing. Mike It is not so easy, Mike. Imagine that Canada tells the US to go fishing. |
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gigi
Kindergarten kid
Posts: 1,470
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Post by gigi on Nov 9, 2008 23:17:43 GMT 1
Strange, but I undestood it perefectly Gigi is very politely and intelligently pointing out that no longer than yesterday you;ve been stopping some... misunderstandings 'tween the most politically engaged members of the forum,while today you are trying to incite another knife-fight, Booooo  Aaaaa... I see!! Silly me! ;D ;D ;D ;D The Polish used by Gigi was perfect indeed. I didn`t catch the allusion..... If that`s the point, I must disagree. There is a substantial difference - Obama is solely an American problem and can/should be closed without detriment to our Polish Forum, while the shield is a Polish problem primarily. Discussing the shield we don`t risk any arguments, I suppose. Because it is a neutral issue - just like barbecue? ;D ;D ;D |
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Post by Bonobo on Nov 9, 2008 23:31:03 GMT 1
Yes! Tufta is very intelligent, though he comes from Warsaw! ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D But these guys learn fast from us! Krakowians! Gigi, be an optimist for a while! When I say there won`t be any arguments about the shield, you can believe me. |
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gigi
Kindergarten kid
Posts: 1,470
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Post by gigi on Nov 9, 2008 23:38:20 GMT 1
When I say there won`t be any arguments about the shield, you can believe me. May the Force be with you...  |
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Post by valpomike on Nov 10, 2008 4:21:21 GMT 1
Canada does not have the power to tell the U.S. to go fish, but I sometimes think, if they could, they would.
We are not trying to take over Canada, or do we want to. We are not forcing things on them, like Russia does to Poland.
I am sure, I don't want to upset, Gigi, by anything I say, I am not that kind of a person, I just speak what I think.
Mike
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Post by tufta on Nov 10, 2008 13:35:19 GMT 1
Strange, but I undestood it perefectly Gigi is very politely and intelligently pointing out that no longer than yesterday you;ve been stopping some... misunderstandings 'tween the most politically engaged members of the forum,while today you are trying to incite another knife-fight, Booooo Aaaaa... I see!! Silly me! ;D ;D ;D ;D The Polish used by Gigi was almost perfect indeed. I didn`t catch the allusion..... If that`s the point, I must disagree. There is a substantial difference - Obama is solely an American problem and can/should be closed without detriment to our Polish Forum, while the shield is a Polish problem primarily. Discussing the shield we don`t risk any arguments, I suppose. My opinion is neutral on it. I don`t care so much. How about you??  Did everyone notice how cunningly smart those Baboons are? LOL Okey, here I go, you want a discussion you'll have one Btw. I don't think there's a group of subject that should be avoided as too provoking. Any subject can be discussed. It is in the interlocutors, or rather the way they discuus, that the danger lies And now to the shield. Here's my opinion - in italics jagahost.proboards79.com/index.cgi?board=newscurrent&action=display&thread=3438&page=2#40427Nothing changed since when I wrote it, except perhaps from the percentage of Poles saying yes to the shield- last time I checked it was well over 50 %. But on the other hand I quite I agree with you, it is not the matter of life and death for us. (But interestingly, it is an excellent litmus test for the agenda of those feriously against the shield.) |
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Post by valpomike on Nov 10, 2008 17:14:01 GMT 1
We the U.S.A. want to make Poland a safer place for all, at our cost, and manpower.
Mike
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gigi
Kindergarten kid
Posts: 1,470
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Post by gigi on Nov 10, 2008 18:23:20 GMT 1
We the U.S.A. want to make Poland a safer place for all, at our cost, and manpower. Mike Mike, there are some who would agree with this, but I don't think it is accurate to say that the entire U.S.A. is in agreement with such a statement. |
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Post by locopolaco on Nov 10, 2008 18:53:45 GMT 1
We the U.S.A. want to make Poland a safer place for all, at our cost, and manpower. Mike Mike, there are some who would agree with this, but I don't think it is accurate to say that the entire U.S.A. is in agreement with such a statement. i agree as most americans have no clue what or where poland is.  |
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Post by Bonobo on Nov 10, 2008 21:19:58 GMT 1
We the U.S.A. want to make Poland a safer place for all, at our cost, and manpower. Mike The problem is that the shield is primarily meant to defend the USA. |
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Post by Bonobo on Nov 10, 2008 21:28:01 GMT 1
Btw. I don't think there's a group of subject that should be avoided as too provoking. Any subject can be discussed. It is in the interlocutors, or rather the way they discuus, that the danger lies Exactly. And now to the shield. Here's my opinion - in italics jagahost.proboards79.com/index.cgi?board=newscurrent&action=display&thread=3438&page=2#40427My comment - I am presently one of the 36% of Poles which are for the anti-missle shield in Poland. I wish the negotiations will end with bilateral success enabling US shield completion and on the other hand an actual strenghtening of Polish anti- middle and short -track ballistic defence as well. The present situation in Poland is such that the sole and obvious political advantages of hosting the shield are not enough. On the other hand, Poland faced with strong Russian influence inside Eurepean Union, mainly through Germany, does not have much choice but to build even closer relations with USA. Unfortunately American decion makers now that just too well, thus the very hard negotiations.Nothing changed since when I wrote it, except perhaps from the percentage of Poles saying yes to the shield- last time I checked it was well over 50 %. But on the other hand I quite I agree with you, it is not the matter of life and death for us. (But interestingly, it is an excellent litmus test for the agenda of those feriously against the shield.) I hope you do realise that Poland is important to the USA as long as it can be used against Russia. |
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Post by valpomike on Nov 10, 2008 22:43:11 GMT 1
Do you think if Russia made a move on Poland the U.S.A. would do nothing? We did in the past, and will, if need be, again.
The shield is for many places in Europe, since they could not reach us with there missles.
Mike
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Post by Bonobo on Nov 10, 2008 23:49:50 GMT 1
Do you think if Russia made a move on Poland the U.S.A. would do nothing? I am afraid so. Let`s be political realists, people experienced by life and history..... Hmm... I can`t remember.... What do you mean? Also for Europe, but US gets most benefits. |
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Post by valpomike on Nov 11, 2008 4:53:20 GMT 1
Do you remember the big war, WW II, we came in and saved Poland than, is this not true.
Mike
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Post by valpomike on Nov 11, 2008 4:54:08 GMT 1
If we did not step in during WWII, it may have been still going on.
Mike
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Post by valpomike on Nov 11, 2008 5:02:43 GMT 1
Why would anyone think that the U.S.A. would not be there for Poland if and when she had a need?
Mike
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Post by locopolaco on Nov 11, 2008 5:06:17 GMT 1
Do you remember the big war, WW II, we came in and saved Poland than, is this not true. Mike technically, no. |
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Post by locopolaco on Nov 11, 2008 5:07:24 GMT 1
Why would anyone think that the U.S.A. would not be there for Poland if and when she had a need? Mike Georgia anyone? |
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