Brexit and Polish migration in UK

[Bonobo]

Poles who reside in the UK are worried about new regulations on migration that are being discussed now. It is said that fewer Poles come to Britain than in previous years.


Coffee House
Brexit isn’t to blame for the Polish exodus

Ed West

23 February 2017

I guess the hate crime epidemic that gripped Britain after Brexit hasn’t put that many people off, with new figures showing net migration of 273,000 in the three months to September 2016. That represents a decline of 49,000, of which 12,000 is due to an increase in eastern Europeans heading home (39,000, as opposed to 27,000 the previous year), which I imagine is less to do with any hostile atmosphere in Britain than the booming economy in Poland. No doubt that’s the way it will be presented, though – ‘Poles fleeing the Brexit terror’.

In my view, the Government is doing a lot of things wrong at the moment, chiefly its refusal to unilaterally guarantee the rights of EU citizens; I’d also invest a lot more in improving Brand Britain by making the country a friendlier place for visitors (also, increase the amount of time children have to be taught foreign language in school).

But the theory that Brexit transformed Britain from a multicultural paradise to a hate-state seem vastly exaggerated. Anecdotally there has been upturn in xenophobic hostility since the vote – I’ve heard of people hearing their first racist remarks in years – and I think it’s true there is a wider pattern; any tribal victory is likely to embolden the more extreme fringes to act on their violent urges. It’s hard to analyse because for some reason people seem to take social media rumours as fact (and like Sweden’s rape statistics, a lot depends on how you define hate crime.)

Whether or not Britain is less friendly though, Polish migration was going to dry up anyway, and even go into reverse, because Poland has awesome growth rates. In 2016, Polish GDP per capita reached two-thirds of western European levels, the first time since the early days of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and it’s inevitably going to get even better; for this the EU must take some credit.

Poland also has one of the best education systems in Europe – it consistently scores near the top of the PISA league table – and it also doesn’t have the, er, demographic challenges now facing Britain, France and Germany. One of the big contests in the 21st century will be the competition to attract the talented ten-thousandth, the highly mobile global elite; because the top earners tend to be at the age where they have children in education, making a country attractive to families is hugely important. A European nation with good schools and zero terrorism is going to be highly appealing.

Paris has been desperately trying to attract London’s elite since the vote in June, and last week Valerie Pecresse, president of the Paris region, pointed out: ‘When was the last time you took your partner off for a weekend in Frankfurt?’ Sure, but the sight of soldiers with machine guns everywhere does tend to dampen the romance a bit, and tourism to France is way down, especially from the Far East. And anyway, Krakow is a pretty good place to go for a weekend. The only dark cloud on Poland’s horizon, as the old Scottish joke goes, is ‘just wait till you see the neighbours they’re getting’. But all the indicators are looking pretty good, and thanks to the many personal ties made since 2004, maybe we’ll soon see more Brits moving to Poland than vice versa, like in the 17th century, when there were an estimated 30,000 Scots living in the country.

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/brexit-isnt-blame-polish-exodus/

[Bonobo]

Flights to London less popular: report
18.03.2017 08:30
Sales of air tickets from Poland to London were down by 16 percent month on month in February, according to Tanie-Loty.pl, a flight comparison company.
Tanie-Loty.pl also reported that Italian destinations such as Milan and Rome are becoming more popular.
The company said in a report: “London, although traditionally the most popular destination in our rankings, has seen a fall in ticket sales which began at the start of the year. The sale of tickets to London has fallen by 16 percent in comparison with January 2017.”
According to Tanie-Loty.pl, the most popular destinations outside of Poland in February, apart from London, Milan and Rome, were Paris, Barcelona, Lisbon, Eindhoven and Dortmund.
There has been a substantial Polish minority in the UK since Poland joined the EU in 2004.
Britain voted to leave the European Union in a referendum in June 2016.



Up to 200,000 Poles may return from UK following Brexit: ministry
28.02.2017 13:14
Poland could see between 100,000 and 200,000 Poles returning back home after the UK leaves the European Union, the Polish Development Ministry has said.
It is estimated that up to one million Poles live in Britain, the majority of whom emigrated there after Poland joined the European Union in 2004. The Polish community comprises the largest migrant population of EU nationals based in Britain.
“The situation around Brexit combined with improvement in the socio-economic situation in Poland may mean that some Poles (an estimate of 100,000-200,000) presently living in Great Britain will decide to return,” Poland's Development Ministry was quoted as saying by Reuters, in a reply to a question by a member of parliament.
The UK voted to leave the European Union in a referendum in June 2016.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to invoke Article 50 of the European Union treaty to exit the bloc in March.

[Bonobo]

Poles departThe beginning of the end of Britain’s biggest episode of migration

Net migration from eight eastern European countries has drawn almost to a halt
Print edition | Britain
Sep 14th 2017
| PETERBOROUGH

THE windows of the Biedronka Polish supermarket in Peterborough are plastered with posters for local events: a Polish “power disco”, a radio festival and a family fun day. On the noticeboard inside hang advertisements for Polish car services, flats for rent and jobs. The city has one of Britain’s fastest-growing populations of European migrants. But next to the poster for “Golden Clinic”, a Polish beauty salon, is a more ominous message. “Being you is not a crime. Targeting you is,” reads a sign from Cambridgeshire Police, encouraging people to report hate crimes.

Before Britain opened its borders and job market to the citizens of eight eastern European countries in 2004, its Office for National Statistics predicted that 5,000-13,000 migrants would come each year. In the end, in the first decade 1.5m arrived, in what by some measures was the single biggest inflow of people in Britain’s history. Poles are now the country’s largest foreign-born community. And a new generation is blooming: last year Polish-born mothers gave birth to 22,382 babies in England and Wales, more than any other foreign group.
Latest updates

But recently net migration from the EU8 countries has fallen close to zero (see chart). In the year to March 2017, some 52,000 EU8 citizens arrived in Britain, 25% fewer than in the previous 12 months. At the same time 46,000 left, 59% more than before. Migrants continue to come from Romania and Bulgaria (known as the EU2), but the pace is slowing. Over the same period 59,000 arrived in Britain, a drop of 14%, while 16,000 left, an increase of 100%.

Economic factors begin to explain the turnaround. Three-quarters of eastern Europeans who have come to Britain since 2004 have come to work, either with the definite offer of a job or seeking employment on arrival. These days British jobs are less attractive than they used to be. Since its recent high in 2015, the pound has depreciated by about 20% against the Polish zloty, reducing the value of migrants’ remittances (and increasing the costs of imported Polish delicacies, sighs the checkout assistant at the Biedronka supermarket). Meanwhile, the gap in living standards between Poland and Britain has steadily narrowed: since 2004 real GDP per person in Poland has increased by around half, while in Britain it has barely budged.

Just as important are the feelings of uncertainty and insecurity caused by the Brexit vote, reckons Paulina Trevena, a Polish sociologist at the University of Glasgow. The status of EU citizens in Britain after Brexit is yet to be decided. The Home Office has told them to sign up for e-mail alerts that will inform them if and when their status changes. John Holdich, the leader of Peterborough council, is enthusiastic about the idea of helping European residents but says the uncertainty about their position makes it hard to do so.

Extensive coverage in the British and Polish press of the hostility towards migrants in the aftermath of the referendum has also caused alarm. Some fear their rights have already been affected, as British employers and landlords take the Brexit vote as permission to discriminate. On September 9th the equalities minister, Nick Gibb, said his office would review evidence that EU citizens were being illegally prevented from applying for jobs and renting or buying houses.

As Britain loses its appeal, migrants are heading elsewhere. Germany has been the most popular destination for Poles for the past three years (Britain has come second). Poland itself is trying to tempt back its diaspora, whose children it is cultivating via Saturday schools (see article). Polish companies and international firms with a presence in Poland are making concerted efforts to attract expat Poles, with companies such as McKinsey reaching out to Polish students’ societies in Britain, for example, says Agata Dmoch, a solicitor in Birmingham.

Paradoxically, a stricter post-Brexit immigration regime, of the sort proposed in a recently leaked Home Office document, could initially result in greater numbers settling in Britain, suggests Michal Garapich, a Polish anthropologist who studies migration. Getting citizenship for a family of four costs more than £5,000 ($6,600). But if Britain were to introduce work permits for skilled Europeans and limit the time that unskilled ones could stay, as suggested in the Home Office proposals, those who commute back and forth might find that stumping up for citizenship was worth it. In the first half of this year 4,171 Poles applied to become British citizens, compared with 1,526 in the first half of 2016.

Stricter immigration rules may also lead to more illegal working. Some industries that many eastern Europeans work in, such as construction, are already quite informal, creating the potential for working off the books. Forecasting how migration flows will change after Brexit is tricky. Predicting whether Britons will be happy with the results is even harder.

www.economist.com/news/britain/21728969-net-migration-eight-eastern-european-countries-has-drawn-almost-halt-beginning