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Post by Bonobo on Feb 22, 2013 23:59:35 GMT 1
www.thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/128004,Government-takes-credit-after-Fitch-revises-economic-rating-to-positive
Fitch Ratings released a statement yesterday saying that they had made the revision after “Poland's general government deficit […] has narrowed by around 4.5 percentage points of GDP since 2010, to an estimated 3.4 percent of GDP in 2012, placing it among the EU's best performers.”
Fitch added that “Public debt has stabilised” and is forecast to moderate to 54.5 percent of GDP in 2014.
“Poland has a solid track record of resilience to the eurozone debt crisis,” Fitch says.
Crucial to Poland's economic performance in the future is maintaining funding from the recently agreed EU budget for 2014-20.
“The EU budget for 2014-20 will allocate EUR105.8bn to Poland, helping it to bridge remaining infrastructure gaps and enhance prospects for long term growth,” the Fitch report says.
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Post by tufta on Feb 23, 2013 9:46:09 GMT 1
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Post by Bonobo on Feb 23, 2013 20:25:39 GMT 1
The smaller economies accelerate-decelerate much quicker than larger ones. Yes, I remember how Lithuanian GNP decreased by 18% in a single year some time ago. Then it rocketed up again. |
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Post by Bonobo on Jan 15, 2016 23:30:03 GMT 1
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Post by pjotr on Jan 17, 2016 5:41:19 GMT 1
 S&P downgrades Polish rating16.01.2016 11:03A firm warning has been given to the Polish government by Standard & Poor’s, which has cut the country’s rating and warned of a further downgrade. Photo: cc/Flickr.com/Fox WuStandard & Poor's has lowered Poland's long-term foreign credit rating to BBB+ from A-, the agency said in a statement released Friday. “ The downgrade reflects our view that Poland’s system of institutional checks and balances has been eroded significantly as the independence and effectiveness of key institutions, such as the constitutional court and public broadcasting, is being weakened by various legislative measures initiated since the October 2015 election,” Standard & Poor’s said in the statement. “ The change in the rating outlook to negative reflects our view that there is potential for further erosion of the independence, credibility, and effectiveness of key institutions, especially the National Bank of Poland (NBP),” the statement read. The Polish złoty currency dropped over two percent to PLN 4.48 against the euro following the news. Economist Lars Christensen tweeted that the decision was a “ shocker” and “ a bit too aggressive”, while other experts, including Marcin Piątkowski, a senior economist at the World Bank called S&P's decision “ absurdly premature and abrupt”. The Polish Finance Ministry called the decision by the rating agency “ incomprehensible”. “ The decision of the rating agency Standard and Poor's about lowering credit rating of Poland is incomprehensible from economic and financial analysis point of view,” the ministry wrote in a statement. “ This decision is contradictory to assessments presented by other rating agencies, the biggest international financial institutions and financial market participants. The decision is all the more incomprehensible as it was not preceded by changes of rating outlook, which was positive prior to that decision. In MoF's opinion attitude of the agency to the dialogue with the Polish authorities about doubts raised by the agency over the so-called political climate is disappointing.” The euro-sceptic Law and Justice ( PiS) party won a landslide victory over the former ruling centre-right party, Civic Platform (PO), in October 2015 elections causing extensive changes in legislation and management of state-run companies. (ua/rg) Reaction Pieter to this Polish Radio and 'Warsaw Business News' item of Bonobo which was in the news yesterday:It is so sad, that Standard & Poor's has lowered Poland's long-term foreign credit rating to BBB+ from A-, because Poland was one of the best European economies in financial stability, innovation, progress and economical developent. It had become a real business destination, trade place for export and import business, a country to invest in, and foreign companies, industries and multi-nationals like to establish branches there. Think about Volkswagen, Deutsche Bank, McKinsey & Company (I met and lunched with a young Polish lady who worked in the Warsaw branch of McKinsey), KPMG, Ernst & Young, Microsoft Poland. That Poland has no official Apple Macingtosh branch or office is alarming in my eyes. Poland should be the economical heart and financial center of Central- and Eastern-Europe. I always hoped that Poland would reach the Tripple A status so that it would be the number one country for investments, corporate finance, trade and doing business. But with the new government which will be bad for the investment climate due it's increase of taxes on banks and foreign investments and public spending program. It is so sad and bad that Poland has now a Lower Medium Grade as investment grade. I really wished it stayed an Upper Medium Grade, or better a High Grade or Prime. An obligor has ADEQUATE capacity to meet its financial commitments. However, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the obligor to meet its financial commitments. In investment, the bond credit rating represents the credit worthiness of corporate or government bonds. It is not to be confused with an individual's credit score. The ratings are published by credit rating agencies and used by investment professionals to assess the likelihood the debt will be repaid. Credit rating agenciesCredit rating is a highly concentrated industry with the two largest rating agencies — Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's — having roughly 80% market share globally, and the " Big Three" credit rating agencies — Moody's, S&P and Fitch Ratings — controlling approximately 95% of the ratings business. Credit rating agencies registered as such with the SEC are " nationally recognized statistical rating organizations". The following firms are currently registered as NRSROs: A.M. Best Company, Inc.; DBRS Ltd.; Egan-Jones Rating Company; Fitch, Inc.; Japan Credit Rating Agency; LACE Financial Corp.; Moody’s Investors Service, Inc.; Rating and Investment Information, Inc.; and Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services. Under the Credit Rating Agency Reform Act, an NRSRO may be registered with respect to up to five classes of credit ratings: ( 1) financial institutions, brokers, or dealers; ( 2) insurance companies; ( 3) corporate issuers; ( 4) issuers of asset-backed securities; and ( 5) issuers of government securities, municipal securities, or securities issued by a foreign government. Credit rating tiersThe credit rating is a financial indicator to potential investors of debt securities such as bonds. These are assigned by credit rating agencies such as Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings to have letter designations (such as AAA, B, CC) which represent the quality of a bond. Moody's assigns bond credit ratings of Aaa, Aa, A, Baa, Ba, B, Caa, Ca, C, with WR and NR as withdrawn and not rated. Standard & Poor's and Fitch assign bond credit ratings of AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B, CCC, CC, C, D.  Source: Wikipedia |
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Post by pjotr on Jan 17, 2016 5:42:30 GMT 1
Jaga's reaction on the same news and post in the other Forum:
Pieter,
I saw the news about downgrading Polish economy ratings in Polish news last night. This is a worrisome sign for the new government. I am glad you posted info in English about it. I wonder whether the downgrading is due to political situation mainly, or the new bank tax, which is going to be imposed in Poland by the new government.
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Post by Bonobo on Jan 17, 2016 23:37:32 GMT 1
1 Economist Lars Christensen tweeted that the decision was a “ shocker” and “ a bit too aggressive”, while other experts, including Marcin Piątkowski, a senior economist at the World Bank called S&P's decision “ absurdly premature and abrupt”. 2 It is so sad, that Standard & Poor's has lowered Poland's long-term foreign credit rating to BBB+ from A-, because Poland was one of the best European economies in financial stability, innovation, progress and economical developent. It had become a real business destination, trade place for export and import business, a country to invest in, and foreign companies, industries and multi-nationals like to establish branches there. Think about Volkswagen, Deutsche Bank, McKinsey & Company (I met and lunched with a young Polish lady who worked in the Warsaw branch of McKinsey), KPMG, Ernst & Young, Microsoft Poland. That Poland has no official Apple Macingtosh branch or office is alarming in my eyes. Poland should be the economical heart and financial center of Central- and Eastern-Europe. I always hoped that Poland would reach the Tripple A status so that it would be the number one country for investments, corporate finance, trade and doing business. But with the new government which will be bad for the investment climate due it's decrease of taxes and public spending program. 1 Yes, some independent experts here also suggest that the decision was hasty and economically ungrounded. 2 The climate is changing on our eyes. Apart from internal factors here, also external ones are worrying. Warnings have been issued by some foreign banks to their clients to sell everything except for safest bonds because a new global crisis is looming on the horizon. www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists |
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Post by pjotr on Jan 17, 2016 23:49:26 GMT 1
You are right Bo, the reasons for concern are both internal (the PiS/Solidarna Polska Tax policies) and external, the threat of a new global crisis. Let's hope that will go the other way. Ofcourse at point 2 I meant the increase of taxes and public spending program.
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tomek
Nursery kid
Posts: 256 
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Post by tomek on Jan 19, 2016 14:14:13 GMT 1
Now PIS playing with Poland and PO playing with Poland last time ago. Old politics must go, new leaders must clean this canal. Pepple have enaugh for old politics losing our mony. Kukiz party promise clean bad situation.
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Post by Bonobo on Jan 19, 2016 23:54:07 GMT 1
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Post by Bonobo on Jan 28, 2016 0:16:00 GMT 1
Moody’s warns of possible downgrade of Polish rating
26.01.2016 13:53
One of the world’s big-three rating agencies, Moody’s, has warned that it could downgrade Poland’s rating, following a similar move by Standard & Poor’s earlier this month.
Moody’s has said that the government’s planned banking tax as well as the Swiss-franc-mortgage conversion programme – both outlined in the electoral campaign of the governing Law and Justice (PiS) party – will take a toll on the profitability of the country’s banks.
“Such a decline in net income would reduce banks’ ability to absorb shocks,” the Financial Times quoted Moody’s as saying in a report.
“If the conversion were to be enforced on unfavourable terms for banks, burdening them with substantial financial costs, that would threaten the stability of the banking sector. The tax also threatens to hurt credit growth because it reduces banks’ capital creation, which risks adversely affecting Poland’s economy and resulting in slower GDP growth,” the report continued.
The news on Tuesday saw the yield of 10-year Polish bonds rocket to 3.331 at the time of writing, an increase of 14.35 percent over the last ten days.
A similar rise in bond yield was seen following the S&P downgrade from A- to BBB+ on January 15.
“The downgrade reflects our view that Poland’s system of institutional checks and balances has been eroded significantly as the independence and effectiveness of key institutions, such as the constitutional court and public broadcasting, is being weakened by various legislative measures initiated since the October 2015 election,” Standard & Poor’s said in a statement.- See more at: www.thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/238091,Moody%E2%80%99s-warns-of-possible-downgrade-of-Polish-rating#sthash.nGNXpXuo.dpuf
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Post by Bonobo on Apr 9, 2016 23:32:57 GMT 1
Moody’s warns foreign investment at risk amid Polish constitutional crisis
05.04.2016 11:43
Moody’s rating agency has warned that Poland’s constitutional crisis could damage the country’s attractiveness to foreign investors.
“Poland (A2 stable) is facing heightened political risk as a result of its constitutional crisis. These developments may impair Poland’s attractiveness for foreign investors, a credit negative,” the Financial Times quoted Moody’s as saying in a report.
The agency said that in January, Poland saw a net portfolio outflow of USD 3.1 billion, the second largest reading in the last 10 years.
Moody’s warned in January that it could downgrade Poland’s rating.
Earlier that same month, Standard & Poor's shocked Poland with a credit rating downgrade, a move that sparked anger in Warsaw, with the Polish finance ministry calling the decision “incomprehensible”.
Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal on March 9 rejected a series of controversial changes to the way it functions introduced by the ruling Law and Justice party.
The court's ruling is only binding if officially published by Prime Minister Beata Szydło, which she has refused to do, claiming its decision is invalid.- See more at: www.thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/247388,Moody%E2%80%99s-warns-foreign-investment-at-risk-amid-Polish-constitutional-crisis#sthash.fhqIWt6V.dpuf
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Post by Bonobo on May 8, 2016 22:01:47 GMT 1
This is so ridiculous that I am embarassed to report it. Where does PiS find those weirdos for their governments? This is so unprofessional.... The Duck told him to do sth, so he did..... Don’t inflame row, Polish finance minister urges top judge
05.05.2016 15:19
Poland’s finance minister has urged the head of the Constitutional Tribunal to refrain from comments that could inflame an ongoing row over the court until the Moody's agency announces its rating for Poland next week.
Paweł Szałamacha. Photo: Finance MinistryPaweł Szałamacha. Photo: Finance Ministry
As the news of Finance Minister Paweł Szałamacha’s comments emerged on Thursday, the Polish złoty weakened against both the euro and the dollar, trading at some 4.42 to the euro at around 2pm, its weakest level since February.
In a letter to the Constitutional Tribunal head, judge Andrzej Rzepliński, Szałamacha pointed out that Moody’s is expected to issue its credit rating assessment for Poland on 13 May.
“As you no doubt know, in January this year another rating agency, S&P, downgraded [Poland’s] rating, giving as the basic reason the situation around the institution that you head," Szałamacha said.
“Poland suffered tangible losses from this decision, even though the economic situation and the state of public finances is good.”
Szałamacha added: “Please consider refraining until 13 May from statements which would raise the level" of the row over the Constitutional Tribunal.
Shock for Poland
In January, Standard & Poor's shocked Poland with a credit rating downgrade, a move that sparked anger in Warsaw, with the Polish finance ministry calling the decision “incomprehensible”.
Standard & Poor’s said in a statement the downgrade reflects its view “that Poland’s system of institutional checks and balances has been eroded significantly as the independence and effectiveness of key institutions, such as the constitutional court and public broadcasting, is being weakened by various legislative measures initiated since the October 2015 election” won by the conservative Law and Justice Party.
Meanwhile, Moody’s warned in late January that it could also downgrade Poland’s rating.
Constitutional crisis
Poland is locked in a constitutional crisis that has seen the government in a standoff with the Constitutional Tribunal.
The tribunal on March 9 rejected a series of controversial changes to the way it functions introduced by Law and Justice.
Prime Minister Beata Szydło has refused to officially publish the court's ruling, claiming it is invalid, thus preventing it from being binding.
Poland's constitutional crisis has gone international, with the European Commission carrying out a probe into the rule of law in Poland.
On 11 March, human rights watchdog the Venice Commission urged the Polish government to publish the rulings of the Constitutional Tribunal.- See more at: www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/251576,Don%E2%80%99t-inflame-row-Polish-finance-minister-urges-top-judge#sthash.6iHOs51C.dpuf |
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Post by Bonobo on May 15, 2016 21:53:51 GMT 1
Moody's changes Polish outlook
14.05.2016 06:18
The New-York based Moody's rating agency has decided to reduce Poland's outlook from Stable to Negative, while keeping the rating unchanged at A2.
The agency said that the key drivers for the decision were fiscal risks “related to a substantial increase in current expenditures”, and “Impairments to the investment climate from a shift towards more unpredictable policies and legislations”.
In January, Moody’s, one of the world’s big-three rating agencies, warned that it could downgrade Poland’s rating, following a similar move by Standard & Poor’s earlier that month.
Meanwhile in April, Moody’s warned that Poland’s constitutional crisis could damage the country’s attractiveness to foreign investors.
Standard & Poor's in January lowered Poland's long-term foreign credit rating to BBB+ from A-, and warned of a possible further downgrade, saying the new Law and Justice (PiS) government had weakened the independence of key institutions.
The move by S&P sparked anger in Poland, with the Polish finance ministry calling the decision “incomprehensible”. Prime Minister Beata Szydło hit out at “politically-motivated” ratings, insisting that the Polish economy is stable.- See more at: www.thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/252772,Moodys-changes-Polish-outlook#sthash.Fp6m5x4N.dpuf
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Post by Bonobo on Nov 2, 2018 13:37:32 GMT 1
Despite political problems, the economy is still in good shape.
Standard and Poor’s raised Poland’s rating to A-
Creation: 2018.10.12 22:41 Update: 2018.10.12 22:41
On 12 October 2018 rating agency S&P Global Ratings announced a decision about raising Poland's credit rating to A- for long term liabilities in foreign currency and A/A-1 for long and short term liabilities, respectively, in local currency.
Rating assessment for short term liabilities in foreign currency remains at A-2.
Rating's outlook is stable.
S&P Global Ratings' rating increase is a result of a competitive, diversified and balanced Polish economy, as well as responsible fiscal policy conducted by Polish government resulting in exceptionally good budget situation. Further improvement was also recorded in the category of international position of Poland (balance of payments), which was reflected in higher note in the "external assessment" sub criterion.
Faster economic growth and lower deficit
‘We are very pleased with S&P's decision on increasing rating of our country. We expected this, especially after April's lift of the outlook to positive. Rising assessment of Poland's creditworthiness confirms that our actions are right and lead to positive changes in Polish economy. We have faster than expected, balanced economic growth and lower than projected deficit' - Prof. Teresa Czerwińska, Minister of Finance said.
‘We are glad that our efforts in fiscal policy are appreciated. From the very beginning our government was determined to tighten the tax system and reform tax administration, which now brings measurable benefits.' – Minister Czerwińska underlined.
Agency analysts are also positive about Poland's development prospects. Strong acceleration of investment in the biggest corporates sector and public sector was underlined. They also noticed that government reacts efficiently to long term challenges, such as demographic changes, introducing e.g. Employee Capital Plans.
Rating prospects
According to the agency, Poland's rating could be raised if the real income growth in Poland will continue to outpace that of key trading partners without creating external imbalances or if the government will post budgetary surpluses leading to a reduction in outstanding public debt in absolute terms. The agency could consider raising the rating if new Employee Capital Plans will boost private savings, hence reducing the government's contingent liabilities related to the aging and declining working population. On the other hand, rating could be lowered if Poland's fiscal performance will deteriorate significantly or if rapid wage growth will lead to a faster-than-expected increase in net external borrowing, a potential sign of eroding competitiveness.
www.finanse.mf.gov.pl/en/web/bip/archive/-/asset_publisher/X7ac/content/standard-and-poor%E2%80%99s-raised-poland%E2%80%99s-rating-to-a?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.finanse.mf.gov.pl%2Fen%2Fweb%2Fbip%2Farchive%3Fp_p_id%3D101_INSTANCE_X7ac%26p_p_lifecycle%3D0%26p_p_state%3Dnormal%26p_p_mode%3Dview%26p_p_col_id%3Dcolumn-2%26p_p_col_pos%3D1%26p_p_col_count%3D2 |
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