Ominous 2022 prognosis for Poland under PiS

[Bonobo]

Part one - economic threats

Rightist PiS government is only able to hand out money to bribe voters and win elections. However, they haven`t got enough brains to know how to make economy thrive. When they took power in 2015, they ran into a god-send prosperity time which they happily took advantage of, without contributing to it in any way. Today, in trouble times, they are lost like kids in the foggy forest - simply clueless and haunted by their self-omposed rightist obsessions and bias.
Pity coz Poland will be hurt by their rule like it was in late communist times before the system collapsed.

businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/ukryty-podatek-od-oszczednosci-uderzy-w-najbiedniejsza-czesc-spoleczenstwa/wx3kgbb



The hidden tax will hit the poorest part of society. We have a report by 42 economists on the seven major pitfalls of 2022.
Mikołaj Kunica

December 14, 2021, 2:15 pm.
4 min reading
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Hidden tax in the form of high inflation - this is the most serious threat to the Polish economy in 2022, believe the economists who participated in the study for the report "Macroeconomic challenges and forecasts for Poland - December 2021". In total, seven main threats have been identified.


A record number of 42 economists presented forecasts of the greatest threats to the economic situation and the stability of the financial system in 2022.
The end of the post-Covid Eldorado awaits us. Experts are clear, it will be necessary to tighten the belt tighter
The report shows that it is not the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated risk of another lockdown, but that inflation is the greatest threat to the development of the Polish economy in 2022.
There is also a growing risk of a possible escalation of the political conflict with Brussels, which may deprive us of billions of euros from the Reconstruction Plan
Economists warn that the bill for many years of neglecting the green transformation will be salty. High electricity prices will be an obstacle to the competitiveness of the Polish economy
The report also includes many critical words towards the NBP and the Monetary Policy Council, which poses the risk of further weakening of the Polish currency.
More such information can be found on the main page of Onet.pl
What awaits the Polish economy in the coming quarters? It was the eighth time that the organizers of the European Financial Congress asked the experts with this question. The number of economists who decided to take part in the study turned out to be record-high, which proves that the forecasts arouse the most emotions this year. The report begins, logically, with a summary of the results of the last 12 months. Experts point out that the entry into 2021 soon was marked by pessimistic prospects in terms of public health, the condition of the Polish economy, enterprises and the situation of individual households.


"The third wave of the pandemic at the end of last year was one of the most dangerous-looking in the world in Poland," reads the report, and its authors estimate that it is similar today, when another, fourth wave of COVID-19 is sweeping through our country. "Despite this, the Polish economy revived strongly in the first three quarters of 2021. Real GDP reached the pre-crisis level already in Q2 2021. Although interruptions in the supply of certain goods and a sharp increase in their prices pose problems for many industries , the strong labor market and the spending possibilities of consumers made the economic results satisfactory "- says one of the theses summarizing the results of the past year.

2022, or austerity?
Later on, the report's authors assess Poland's outlook for the coming quarters. In their opinion, a significant impact on the development of the economic situation will be primarily the stricter monetary policy of the central bank, which has to deal with accelerating inflation and the excessively weak zloty exchange rate . The government also has to do in this field, and it should decide to "at least slightly tighten the budget policy". Economists also point to another important impulse that should be generated by the implementation of the Polish Order and the implementation, after its possible approval by the European Commission, of the delayed National Reconstruction Plan.



1. High and persistent inflation

2. Uncertainty related to the development of a pandemic

3. Rising interest rates

4. Global problems with the availability of raw materials, materials and delays in deliveries

5. Conflict with the EU

6. Rising energy prices

7. Shortages on the labor market and the wage and price spiral

This is what the "black seven" of the challenges for 2022 look like.
These are the "black seven" challenges for 2022 | Macroeconomic challenges and forecasts for Poland report - December 2021
Another lockdown is still real
This time, the pandemic landed on position no. 2, and therefore the risk of recurrence of infections, virus mutations and lockdowns . It is influenced by the experience of weeks observed all over Europe, but especially in Poland, where, as it turns out, the availability of the vaccine did not change much.

In the second step, the experts participating in the project were asked to give a subjective assessment of the importance and probability of individual threats. It turns out that in the current edition of the study, four threats have gained an overwhelming advantage, so their occurrence is assessed as significant and highly probable.


Hidden tax
As in the previous survey - in June - the concerns about high and persistent inflation are confirmed . It is worth noting, however, that only six months ago, the increase in prices was indicated only as the third of the most important threats for the economy, while now this risk has moved to the first position.

"High, persistent inflation is currently indicated as the most important threat to the economic situation, more important than the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to redistributive effects, high inflation hits the poorest part of the society, sparks a wage-price spiral, raises inflation expectations of enterprises , which in turn raises the costs of fighting inflation when trying to lower it, it inhibits investments, it is a hidden tax on savings " - we read in the eighth edition of the report.

EKF experts estimate that the average annual inflation next year will be significantly higher than this year
EKF experts estimate that next year's average inflation will be significantly higher than this year | Macroeconomic challenges and forecasts for Poland report - December 2021
Hello, Brussels. We're losing energy
According to more than 40 economists, the second most important threat to the economic situation in Poland, and therefore also more important than the fourth wave of the pandemic, is the conflict between Warsaw and Brussels.

"Due to the conflict between Poland and the EU , which has swelled for many months, billions of euros may be at risk, which were to help us recover from the pandemic, reform the national energy sector, accelerate digitization and support business . whose EU can suspend or reduce the amount of EU funds or limit access to them - in proportion to the scale of violations "- we read.


Regardless of the persistent problem of inflation, economists treat price increases in one key category of commodities separately. This is a challenge that we have been writing about in Business Insider for many months. Poland, as confirmed by these analyzes, has a structural problem with its outdated energy sector and still based on fossil fuels. This is the fourth systemic threat to the economic situation in our country in the coming 2022.

The rise in energy prices is, of course, reflected in inflation, but economists say it is a problem of its own.

"Despite the recent boom in photovoltaic power plants, the Polish economy remains heavily dependent on coal and it becomes a growing burden for it . The end of coal is inevitable for many reasons, including: mainly from Russia) raw material, difficulties in financing and maintaining production infrastructure, negative impact on the climate and rising costs of CO2 emissions, environmental risks related to coal mining, falling social acceptance for coal combustion in both power and heating "- reads the report.


The authors of the study clearly state that the sum of these negative phenomena will continue to drive up energy prices in Poland, which will be an obstacle to the competitiveness of the Polish economy . That is why, in their opinion, it is so important in the context of energy to resolve the conflict with the EU. Ending the disputes would allow the EU billions to be obtained from the Reconstruction Program for energy and climate transformation.

Unbelievable PLN?
A separate chapter concerns the assessment of threats resulting from the significant weakening of the Polish currency, observed since this autumn. In the section entitled: threats to the credibility of the zloty, over 40 experts indicate eight areas of such threats.

According to the authors of the report, there is no credible monetary policy in Poland. " Currently, monetary policy is conducted contrary to the mandate of the central bank. The decisions which led to the most negative interest rates in our region are particularly questionable." There are also strong words about questioning the independence of the NBP. In addition, we are to witness the "chaotic, illegible and inconsistent information policy" of the central bank, as well as the NBP and the Monetary Policy Council belittling the market pressure to weaken the exchange rate of the domestic currency, which is additionally not helped by the "escalation of conflicts between Poland and the EU".


In their opinion, the authors of the report also indicate that the factors unfavorable for the zloty exchange rate are the poor condition of public finances, including the growing current account deficit and the temptation of excessive state indebtedness in the pre-election period. Another negative factor is to be " growing external threat, increasing tensions in international politics [...] including: increasing tensions at the border" . The document also mentions the political instability in Poland and the unreliability of government decision-makers as well as the growing legal risk in the banking sector related mainly to the lack of a clear solution to the issue of housing foreign currency loans.

[Bonobo]

Part two
internal and external political threats
www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/graczyk-polska-zdegradowana/1m8y22g,79cfc278


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Graczyk: Poland is degraded
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Today, 12:48

Roman Graczyk
Journalist and publicist; author's photo - Paweł Ulatowski
At the end of the old year 2021, we would like to pour some encouragement into the hearts of PT Readers. But how to do it when there are black clouds everywhere? You have to tell yourself this without anesthesia: Poland is in a bad situation today, perhaps the worst, since 1989.

It was then that we started building a new state on the ruins of the Polish People's Republic. We certainly did not avoid mistakes, but - when we look at it from a distance - we will conclude that Poland: 1) gradually and continuously made up for the civilizational distance to the West (which was an undisputed model for us at that time); 2) its internal constitutional devices - although not without flaws - created the legal framework for the development of modern society and made it possible to turn a political dispute (inevitable under conditions of freedom) into democratic governments limited by constitutional conditions; 3) its international location gave a sense of security.


Today our country is bursting at the seams due to the power of its destructive internal political conflict. And its international position is no longer indisputable - Poland has already become "the sick man of Europe" for many Western capitals; Poland is becoming an acceptable partner for its NATO allies, but one that has some question marks.

This is the balance of the rule of Law and Justice in terms of the system and the international. There is something to worry about on the eve of the New Year 2022.

Disaster of the rule of law
The rule of law has been ruined in Poland. The ruling party built a political system different from the one it found in 2015, and which was modeled on the liberal-democratic model of limited power. The new system has some features in common with that known to us from the People's Republic of Poland, known as the system of unified state power. This Soviet model - the agreement that it has been implemented so far only partially - is guided by the guiding principle that there is only one decision-making center in the state, with all the multitude and diversity of powers, and no counter-power can stand against it.

In Gierek's Poland it was the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Polish United Workers' Party, and in it the last sentence belonged to the First Secretary. The courts were not a counter-power of any kind, because the political guardianship of the Polish United Workers' Party was established over them, and part of this guardianship was the supervision of the minister of justice and the prosecutor general (for example, these offices were not combined during the entire period of the Polish People's Republic) over the judiciary.

As a result, those who were in a dispute with the authorities had nothing to look for in the courts, because in such cases they always ruled in favor of the authorities. So when, at the end of 1987, the Supreme Court passed a judgment in favor of Jan Rokita, who sued the Provincial Office of Internal Affairs in Krakow (i.e. the Krakow SB) for unlawful detention, it was an event in that sensational system and marked its decline, which also happened in in one and a half years it did.

Currently, the state of the rule of law is such that the government aims to subjugate the courts and neutralize judges who issue decisions that are not in line with the political interests of the ruling camp. The Minister of Justice / Attorney General, through new and inspired institutions (such as the neo-KRS or the Disciplinary Chamber of the Supreme Court), as well as by appointing new judges, whom he expects loyalty / gratitude for promotion, is slowly making less and less Possible situations such as the 1987 judgment of the Supreme Court in the case of Rokita vs WUSW. Yes, such sentences, unfavorable to the authorities, are still being passed, but also an increasing number of judges have "disciplinaries", some of them do not adjudicate.

"The National Court Register kills the rule of law in Poland". Iustitia calls for a boycott of the elections to the next, politically appointed council
As part of the disciplining machine of uncomfortable judges, more and more judges are neutralized. There are also more neo-judges, that is people appointed to judicial positions by the PR president with the help of the neo-NCJ. And although not all neo-judges turn out to be power supporters ready to compromise their vocation, the composition of the judiciary is certainly constantly changing in such a way that more and more individuals are ready to serve the authority. In this sense, the real goal of the "reform" of the judiciary is slowly but steadily getting closer.

The Polish Constitutional Tribunal under the scrutiny of Brussels. Judge Hermeliński: They are right. And the prime minister makes unacceptable theses
In Poland, AD 2021, the courts are becoming less and less a factor independent of the political authority. The Constitutional Tribunal is not one since, at the end of 2016, a group of new judges led by Mariusz Muszyński and Julia Przyłębska took control of it. From now on, the Tribunal adjudicates as the leadership of the ruling party wants, hence it is entitled to call it the neo-Constitutional Tribunal (or, as some prefer, the Julia Przyłębska Tribunal).

Ruin of international politics
Poland has ruined relations with the European Union of which (it is a paradox) it is still a member. There have already been over a dozen judgments of European tribunals (the EU and the Council of Europe) against Poland for violating the rule of law, further cases are pending, and several Commission applications to the CJEU against Poland are pending. We have become a symbol of a country that has betrayed its European vocation. Suffice it to say that with such institutions of the judiciary and with such application of the rule of law as currently occurring in Poland, we would not be admitted to the Union. Nobody expels us from the Union, because the treaties do not provide for a situation where a member state (assuming that it voluntarily joins the club of the rule of law) will systematically break the basic rules. Well, we are there. We are sitting, together with Hungarians, in a donkey's bench.


Poland has weakened relations with its neighbors, not only with authoritarian states such as Belarus and Russia. Also with democracies like Germany and the Czech Republic. The most painful from the point of view of Poland's geopolitical interests is the case of Ukraine, with which the present government maintains quasi-friendly relations. Supposedly, because we declare ourselves as Ukraine's friend and advocate towards the EU and the United States. In fact, we don't do much about these things. Even though Ukraine's independence is in our best interests, we act as if we didn't really care about it. That is - let's not be afraid of words - we behave as if we do not care about maintaining the most important geopolitical guarantee of our independence.

Poland has undermined relations with the United States. Even under the previous administration, we were admonished for failing to meet the standards of human rights protection, and things are worse under the new administration. We can no longer count on the certain forbearance that the eccentric populist Trump had for us as he was replaced by the classic Democrat Biden.

If, after so many signals that have been sent to us in recent years, and especially in the last six months, regarding the freedom of the media and the protection of American investments in Poland, the leadership of Law and Justice again sends lex TVN to the Sejm , which once, after the row with the smaller coalition partner Gowin was lost to the relief of the American side, it is really hard to consider Jarosław Kaczyński as a politician with some qualifications in foreign policy. Lex TVN was lost again, this time after President Duda's veto - which we'll come back to - but bringing him back in mid-December is something as extravagant as Trump's extravagance - except that he was standing - however! - at the head of a superpower.

But there is also the neo-Tribunal of Przyłębska
After the veto in the lex TVN case, some breathed a sigh, recognizing that if the project goes to the bin, the matter is closed - wrongly. The president's veto, which many counted on as the last resort, but which few believed in, is interpreted differently, and some of the comments are aimed at regaining political subjectivity by Andrzej Duda - again wrongly.

The lex TVN case is not definitely closed. Since the PiS leadership decided to consider the motion of a group of deputies to the neo-Constitutional Tribunal to declare some provisions of the anti-abortion act incompatible with the Constitution in the fall of last year, we know that a new legislative tool exists and works. What, due to the lack of a majority, cannot be achieved in the Sejm, can be achieved through the interpretation of the neo-Tribunal. This body is able to interpret the challenged provisions of the Act and the provisions of the Constitution, whatever it is politically necessary, so that the already binding law completely changes its sense.

Note that the anti-abortion law was passed nearly three decades ago. This means that it was consistent with the Constitution for all these years, until suddenly after 27 years it ceased to be compliant. Conformity - or not - with the Constitution ceases to be a permanent assessment in our new political system, it becomes a variable one, depending on the current needs of the ruling camp.

The Tribunal, on the other hand, ceases to be a counter-power, a factor that every political majority must take into account, but becomes one of the elements of that majority: next to the parliamentary club, party authorities and state institutions legally settled by the majority. Because the concept of institutions that are beyond the reach of the majority is not known to the new legal-state doctrine coined by Law and Justice. In a liberal democracy, some institutions remain independent of the new majority, but an illiberal democracy does not provide for such institutions.

If that happens, as it was this summer with the Ombudsman, it must be considered an accident at work. Generally, however, these institutions have to be taken over. And the constitutional court, rightly perceived by PiS as the most important obstacle on the way to unlimited power, was seized first. Since the political power has a tool, then the choice of when to use it is only a matter of a political decision.

The interpretation of President Duda's veto as an expression of his regaining political subjectivity has weak grounds. Dr. Ryszard Piotrowski rightly noted that the justification for the veto emphasized the need to respect American interests in Poland and to keep the Polish-American trade agreement, and this should not be the main concern of the President of the Republic of Poland. Andrzej Duda - as the head of the Polish state - is the guardian of the Polish Constitution and it was from the Constitution that he should have derived the motives for his veto, and not from concern for the interests of the USA. Yes, it is good that the veto was passed and it is good that Poland took care of the interests of its most important ally in this way, but it is not indifferent to how the presidential decision was justified.

It is - also - a question of style that has never been, and in this case is still not a strong point of this presidency. But there is an even more important thing: the position of the presidency in the system of authorities. What Andrzej Duda has been presenting to us since the beginning of his first term in office has little to do with the spirit of the Constitution. According to the Constitution, the President of the Republic of Poland safeguards the legality of the operation of the entire system, and the main legality criterion is the compliance of official acts of the highest authorities with the Constitution.

Well, every child knows that since 2015 the Constitution has been repeatedly violated, and the President usually observes it silently, and sometimes takes an active part in this procedure. Now, when he vetoed an evidently unconstitutional law, he justified it with the interests of the US, and not the Polish Constitution. In this sense, President Duda is not a systemic safety device, just as the Tribunal of Julia Przyłębska is not, just as the courts and the media cease to be so.

The new system, introduced in 2015 by PiS, is not yet closed, but it is there and is already working.

Russian script
Let us imagine that in the autumn of 2015, Vladimir Putin, while weaving geopolitical scenarios for Russia, wonders what goals would be good to achieve in the coming years in the Polish section. Paralysis of the constitutional guarantees of the rule of law, Poland's quarrel with the EU, weakening its position in NATO - if we assume that Vladimir Vladimirovich could have set such goals for himself at the time, then given his overall policy towards the West, this hypothesis is defended. And now six years have passed, the ruler of the Kremlin reviews his policy in Polish affairs, and what does he notice? These goals have been achieved with Polish hands.

Putin's mysterious army. They have a new purpose. "They do what they want there"
Jarosław Kaczyński's political friend, Victor Orban, is openly pro-Russian. Kaczyński and PiS are anti-Russian. So what, if they are pursuing a policy the effects of which are beneficial to Russia? And the effects of which degrade Poland.

Breaking the continuity of the social and political fabric
Many analyzes have already been written on how to de-PiS-yize Poland after the opposition has won the elections. But let us note that PiS has an extraordinary power to deal with image-related disasters, so its defeat in 2023 is not a foregone conclusion. However, if we assume that the opposition wins in 2023, it does not mean that we will wake up in a different Poland overnight.

The first difficulty is that PiS introduced a different system here, its dismantling requires more time and more political acumen than a simple seizure of power. The new government may be interested in temporarily maintaining some institutions, thanks to which it is easier to govern, because fewer eyes are on the hands of the rulers. There may be times when the transition state will tend to petrify.

The second - and more serious - difficulty lies in the fact that the continuity of the social (at the electorate level) and political (at the level of the political elite) continuity has been severed in Poland. In normal political competition, with all the differences, there is some foundation of shared belief. Thanks to it, you can argue on matters that are subject to dispute. In the times of "Solidarity", the movement was certainly ideologically diverse, and yet the things that linked its various trends were clear and strong. There was something to refer to.

What can supporters of both camps refer to today? Not much of this and it is a waste. How much space do the moderates occupy in both camps, and how much are the zealots of the authorities and the opposition? The latter are disturbingly many, and they are often the ones who set the tone. And then it's a tone of some political mysticism, rather than cold scrutiny. Then the discussion is impossible, because on the one hand the word "Ciemnogród" is spoken, on the other the word "Targowica" - and this is the end of the conversation.

In this sense, we have lost Poland as a value that unites us - despite all divisions. And if so, the hypothetical new government that will come after PiS will face an opposition against which today's "total opposition" is a toy for children.

To marginalize party zealots
Coming out of communism, we thought that we needed to build strong liberal-democratic institutions, because they would anchor us in Western civilization. We thought we were raising real guarantees that certain limits would not be exceeded: power may be one or the other, but it will never be arbitrary.

Meanwhile, (freely elected) people came to power who judged that these restrictions were the brakes of real governance that must be destroyed. It was possible something that shouldn't have happened. Why? Because the new rulers did not feel they would respect these guarantees. There was not enough institutions, as there was no political culture adequate to them

What is the way out of this trap? If the law has failed, we must resort to politics. Make the moderates in both camps have more to talk than the zealots. Then we will gradually rebuild the institutions and marginalize the zealots again.

All the best for the New Year!

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Creation Date: Today, 12:48