Post by Bonobo on Jan 28, 2022 10:52:24 GMT 1
A very good article about energy policy in Europe
www.onet.pl/informacje/smoglabpl/tak-europa-zalozyla-sobie-na-szyje-energetyczna-petle-opinia/rybvdm0,30bc1058
This is how Europe put an energy loop around its neck [OPINION]
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been growing for weeks. Many observers fear an open armed conflict between these countries in the near future.
Jakub Jędrak
145
Today, 09:00
You can read this text in 10 minutes
"The Union's dependence on Russian gas greatly strengthens Russia's position and helps it regain its position as a global power.""The Union's dependence on Russian gas greatly strengthens Russia's position and helps it regain its position as a global power" - Victoria Viper B / Shutterstock / smoglab.pl
ADVERTISEMENT
EU countries are threatening Russia with sanctions in the event of military aggression. In reality, however, it is Europe, increasingly dependent on Russian gas, that is Putin's hostage
For example, gas reserves in Germany will last for about 2 weeks.
The European Union is importing more and more natural gas and an increasing part of it comes from Russia. In the case of Germany and Poland - over 50 percent, in the case of most Central and Eastern European countries - even more than 75 percent.
One of the reasons for the increase in Russian gas imports in recent years is the closure of nuclear power plants in some EU countries - primarily in Germany
The Union's dependence on Russian gas greatly strengthens Russia's position and helps it regain its position as a global power
Jakub Jędrak - Member of the Polish Smog Alert (belongs to the Krakow Smog Alert and Warsaw Without Smog). A physicist by education, as part of his activity in the Polish Smog Alert, he deals primarily with the popularization of knowledge about the impact of air pollution on human health.
Another neighbor of Poland plans to move away from coal. The date was given
* The presented content is not the position of Onet, but the opinion of the author. The text was published on the Smoglab website. We show the material as part of the Onet Partner Program.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has been going on for almost eight years, may at any moment turn into open war again. For example, the White House warns against such a scenario.
Attack from three sides?
Both militarily and politically, the Russians are ready to invade Ukraine - although of course it is not certain whether they will attack, or what the scale of any possible Russian aggression will be.
Experts estimate that Russia has gathered around 100,000 at the border with Ukraine. soldiers. They also warn that the Russians may attack from three directions: not only from the Donbass and Russia to the west, but also from Belarus to the south, towards Kiev, and finally from the Black Sea to the north.
Both the US and EU countries (including Germany) are threatening Russia with sanctions should it dare to invade Ukraine. However, when it comes to possible reactions and actions by the European Union, Putin does not need to be too afraid of them.
A Russian "gas pistol" placed at a European temple
Russia has a powerful tool to put pressure on Europe, especially in winter - the country supplies a very significant, and year by year, part of the natural gas consumed by EU countries.
Natural gas imports to the European Union from 2017 to mid-2021, detailing supplies from Russia. Source: Eurostat.Natural gas imports to the European Union from 2017 to mid-2021, detailing supplies from Russia. Source: Eurostat. - Eurostat / smoglab.pl
In the second quarter of 2021, 42 percent of the total number of cars came from Russia. natural gas reaching the EU via pipelines.
For comparison, ten years earlier, the share of Russian gas in EU imports was 30 percent, and according to other sources: 24 percent.
The share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in natural gas imports to the EU is approx. 23%. Although it is growing, it can still by no means replace Russian gas. Especially since some of the LNG supplies to Europe also come from Russia.
On the other hand, LNG supplies from the USA to the Old Continent have been record high in recent weeks. This is partially offset by the sharp decline in supplies from Russia, which began in the fall and increased further with the advent of winter.
Why is Europe importing more and more gas from Russia?
There are several reasons. One is the decline in gas production by the Netherlands - once an important gas producer in recent years (the decline in natural gas production in Germany is of much less importance here).
Another is replacing coal-fired power plants with gas in many countries. Coal is the most destructive source of energy for the climate, so all countries where coal-fired power plants are still working, including Poland, should get rid of them as soon as possible. Another question is how beneficial the climate is to replace coal with natural gas in the electricity sector.
(The problem is complex: if we replace a coal-fired block with a gas-fired block, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of electricity produced drop roughly twice. But there are also emissions of methane, which is a very powerful greenhouse gas and the main component of natural gas. Methane enters the atmosphere during extraction. and transport of natural gas. On the other hand, deep coal mines are also a very important source of methane emissions).
However, the increase in the amount of natural gas imported from Russia into the EU is also largely due to the fact that some EU countries are giving up nuclear energy (such as Germany) or reducing its share in energy production (such as France). In a moment, Belgium will also get rid of nuclear energy.
Read also: Germany shut down the last nuclear reactors. They are also striving for a lack of nuclear power in other countries
They switch off the old ones and do not build new ones
In a broader sense, "nuclear abandonment" is about more than just shutting down existing plants. No less important is the abandonment or even ban on the construction of new facilities that could replace old blocks, taken out of service for technical reasons after working for several dozen years.
For two decades now, no new nuclear power plants have been allowed to be built in either Germany or Belgium. Similarly to the decommissioning of the existing reactors, the reason is that ... Greens, traditionally hostile to "nuclear", joined the ruling coalition in both these countries at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries.
(Although you probably know this story very well, it is never enough to remind you: in Germany, two decades ago, the SPD-Greens coalition decided to abandon nuclear energy. The German Chancellor was then Gerhard Schröder from the SPD. This politician is well known for his close relations with Vladimir Putin. and the signing of an agreement with Russia on the construction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline in the last weeks of his office as Chancellor. Schröder was soon appointed to the supervisory board of the Russian-controlled Nord Stream consortium that built the gas pipeline. oil company "Rosneft").
In France, in order to connect a new reactor to the grid, its operator has to shut down an old reactor at the same time. It is also solely the result of pressure from opponents of the nuclear power plant and of political decisions from the time when Francois Hollande was the president of France.
(Hollande also announced a reduction from 75% to 50% of the share of nuclear energy in the French energy mix by 2025. Fortunately, his successor has postponed this deadline by 10 years).
Gas instead of atom and carbon
Both in Belgium and in Germany, and even in France (which still has an impressive "fleet" of nuclear power plants and, fortunately, this will not change soon), new gas power plants are being built and will be built. This is because the shutdown of nuclear power plants must be replaced with something, and in Germany and France also coal plants. For technical reasons, these conventional, controllable energy sources cannot be replaced solely by uncontrollable renewable sources such as wind and sun.
Natural gas consumption is likely to increase significantly, at least temporarily. To the detriment of the climate, because gas is not a "low-emission" fuel, while nuclear power plants practically do not emit greenhouse gases.
If anyone has any doubts, I would like to remind you of the opinion of Markus Krebber, director of the German energy company RWE: in order to replace the nuclear units being shut down, and later the coal ones, Germany must build gas power plants with a capacity of up to 20-30 GW.
(For comparison, the highest power demand in Poland is still below 30 GW).
The Belgians, in turn, are planning to build several gas-fired power plants with a total capacity that may exceed 3 GW.
Read also: Belgium will shut down its nuclear power plants. Several gas-fired power plants will be built in their place
Of course, this does not mean that all these new gas blocks will run non-stop, but they will still use huge amounts of gas and emit a lot of CO 2 .
ADVERTISEMENT
Probably in some time, as the energy transformation progresses (e.g. with the development of hydrogen technologies) in each of these countries, gas consumption will start to decrease, but it will not happen too soon.
For the moment, however, we have the beginning of 2022, the middle of winter, the whole world is wondering if and when the Russians will enter Ukraine, and Putin has very strong cards in his hand. And at any time he can tell EU politicians "I'm checking".
How dangerous is Russian "gas weapon" for Europe?
It is true that Russia "lives" from the sale of energy resources - oil and gas are responsible for 40 percent of the total. the country's budget. Therefore, limiting the supply of hydrocarbons to Europe in the long run is completely not in the interest of the Russians.
However, if Putin decided to cut the EU off from Russian gas supplies for a while, we would be dealing with a very serious energy crisis in many places in Europe (including Germany).
Read also: Energy crisis in Norway. A price increase of up to 700 percent. The government pays extra money to the bills
Even if the worst-case scenario: "the lights go out and it gets cold" did not materialize - if neither the continuity of electricity supply nor the heating of households were to be jeopardized, European industry would suffer greatly.
Including the powerful German chemical industry, which needs natural gas not only as heat energy, but also as a source of hydrogen (for example for the synthesis of ammonia).
Germany is particularly important here, so let's focus on this country for a moment.
How much gas does Germany need?
The consumption of natural gas in Germany in 2021 amounted to approx. 100 billion cubic meters - approx. 5 times more than currently consumed by Poland each year.
Germany has gas storage facilities with a capacity of 24 billion cubic meters, i.e. a quarter of the annual consumption. Except that consumption is obviously higher in the winter months, and currently the gas storage facilities in Germany are not even half full.
ADVERTISEMENT
A few days ago, the German economy and climate ministry admitted that Germany's natural gas reserves would be sufficient for less than 18 days. Interestingly, some German gas storage facilities are controlled by ... Russian Gazprom.
Imports from all sources only in the period January - October amounted to 119 billion cubic meters. Own production is a small fraction of the demand. In addition, gas production in Germany decreased from 11 billion cubic meters. in 2010 up to 4.5 billion cubic meters. in 2020.
Russia is the main gas supplier for Germany and will remain so for at least the next few years. I haven't found exact figures, but Eurostat estimates show that in 2021, between 50 and 75% of the data came from Russia. gas imported to Germany (incidentally, in the case of Poland the situation was very similar).
Energiewende paradoxes
How much does energy production in Germany depend on natural gas today? Let's look at the numbers.
Half of German houses are heated with natural gas. This fuel is also responsible for almost 27 percent. primary energy consumption and approx. 15% of electricity production (data for 2021).
The role of gas in stabilizing the German power system is very important - gas power plants are used when electricity production from uncontrollable renewable sources: wind and sun, which Germany has a lot, is used.
The problem will arise when it does not shine strongly for a long time (which is rather normal in winter) and it does not blow properly, and there is a shortage of gas. Coal-fired power plants will have to operate at full capacity - again, to the detriment of the climate. Besides, Germany also imports hard coal mainly from Russia, only lignite is 100 percent. own.
The problem may be even greater that with the closure of three nuclear units at the turn of the year, 4 GW of power has disappeared, and in less than a year, another 4 gigawatts will disappear. The Germans will then be able to count on "nuclear power" only if they buy it from their neighbors.
For all these reasons, Germany - the most economically powerful country in the EU - so far has a critical need for Russian gas.
ADVERTISEMENT
The darkest dream of German politicians?
And therefore, from Germany's point of view, Russia's rapid annexation of Ukraine is by no means the worst-case scenario. After all, in 2014, Russia has already occupied a large part of Ukraine. And what? And nothing. We all continue to buy gas from the Russians.
A long-term armed conflict in which the West would decisively and unanimously support Ukraine would be much worse for German interests, imposing really severe sanctions on the Kremlin.
Read also: This year Poland may become independent from gas from Russia
And what are the politicians who rule Germany proposing to de-escalate the tension between Russia and Ukraine? Well ... cooperation in the development of renewable energy sources. At least that is what the German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said recently in an interview with "Der Spiegel".
Of course, there is some logic, strategy and sense in it - "let's give them some money, they won't do something really bad and crazy." But in the current situation, it sounds a bit like a distasteful joke.
It is true that the current German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz (SPD), has promised more than once tough sanctions against Russia if that country attacks Ukraine. The words themselves, however, do not cost much. We know, for example, that Germany is blocking the sale of weapons to Ukraine.
It can be argued that the Federal Republic of Germany has such rules - they do not sell weapons to countries engulfed in active armed conflict. Or that there is also a specific, historically conditioned attitude of the Germans towards Russia - a mixture of guilt for the monstrous crimes committed against the inhabitants of the Soviet Union during World War II and the trauma related to the entry of the Red Army into Germany.
But how long will the events of 80 years ago influence today's politics? And the question for here and now: who would survive longer in the "gas war to destruction" (if it had happened) - Germany with gas reserves for several days or maybe Russia?
ADVERTISEMENT
Energy policy can have military ramifications
According to analysts from www.eurointelligence.com, Germany's departure from nuclear energy is one of the most important strategic decisions in this century. Moreover, it is a decision that has made Russia a world power again. Even if there is a bit of an exaggeration in it, there is also a great deal of truth.
The 'plowing' of the German nuclear power plant is certainly much more important and more valuable for the Kremlin than the blocking of arms supplies to Ukraine by German politicians, which arouses so many (understandable and justified) negative emotions.
Of course, the problem is not limited to Germany itself. Looking more broadly, the abandonment of nuclear energy in other EU countries (the process began as early as the late 1970s in Austria) and the resulting growing dependence of Europe on Russian energy resources is a perfect scenario for Putin.
Read also: Energy prices jumped 300 percent in two months. What did governments do in 1973?
It has also been known for a long time that there are strong dependencies between energy policy, national security and military activities. We are reminded of this by the history of the oil crisis of 1973, about which Tomek Borejza recently wrote .
Today, the key to European energy independence are low-carbon renewable sources (wind and sun) and nuclear energy. Or rather, their combination in reasonable proportions, depending on a specific region and country.
The war is not over yet, the benefits for Russia are already there
In Europe, gas prices remain high, partly because of the high risk of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Markets are responding to the threat of a potential conflict - oil and gas prices are rising, and so are the revenues to the Russian budget.
ADVERTISEMENT
The invasion, which is not yet happening and which may never happen, has already paid off for the Kremlin.
A lesson for Poland
At the end, let's go back to our own backyard, because it's not fun here either. According to the recently published report of the Forum Energii think tank, Poland is one of the EU countries that become dependent on the import of energy resources the fastest.
Over the last two decades, we have paid 1.16 trillion zlotys (1160 billion zlotys!) For imported energy resources, and our dominant supplier is, of course, ... Russia.
Specifically, in the years 2000-2020 we spent PLN 802.9 billion on imported oil, PLN 285.7 billion on natural gas, and PLN 72.2 billion on coal. Imports of these fuels to Poland increased during that time by 756 percent (coal), 41 percent. (oil) and 118 percent. (gas).
And is it possible to say something optimistic? Fortunately, yes.
We are building the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline connecting Poland and Norway, which may soon make us independent of gas supplies from Russia. It's a pity we haven't built it for a long time, but better late than never.
This investment improves Poland's energy security, but does not change the fact that emissions from natural gas - be it Norwegian or Russian - are harmful to the climate. Or that you will have to pay dearly for the imported gas. As a sweetness, there is the awareness that Norway will not buy tanks with this money and will not invade anyone.
Also read: Coal prices go up sharply. Gas may be competitive even after the increases
Fortunately, we are also planning to build nuclear power plants. Unfortunately, again - as in the case of the gas pipeline to Norway - many years have been wasted. In an alternative, better world, where our politicians think and responsibly plan their actions in the perspective of decades, not one term, electricity from the first Polish "nuke" could already flow on the network today.
In recent years, photovoltaics has developed very nicely, but after changing the rules for billing energy, the development of solar energy will most likely slow down significantly in Poland.
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And perhaps most importantly: the development of onshore wind energy is still blocked in Poland since 2016. And without it, it is difficult to count on a successful and relatively quick transformation of our archaic energy system, which may crumble at any moment.
It is clear that we could transform the Polish energy sector much better and faster. It is beneficial not only for the climate, but also for the Polish economy and security.
www.onet.pl/informacje/smoglabpl/tak-europa-zalozyla-sobie-na-szyje-energetyczna-petle-opinia/rybvdm0,30bc1058
This is how Europe put an energy loop around its neck [OPINION]
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been growing for weeks. Many observers fear an open armed conflict between these countries in the near future.
Jakub Jędrak
145
Today, 09:00
You can read this text in 10 minutes
"The Union's dependence on Russian gas greatly strengthens Russia's position and helps it regain its position as a global power.""The Union's dependence on Russian gas greatly strengthens Russia's position and helps it regain its position as a global power" - Victoria Viper B / Shutterstock / smoglab.pl
ADVERTISEMENT
EU countries are threatening Russia with sanctions in the event of military aggression. In reality, however, it is Europe, increasingly dependent on Russian gas, that is Putin's hostage
For example, gas reserves in Germany will last for about 2 weeks.
The European Union is importing more and more natural gas and an increasing part of it comes from Russia. In the case of Germany and Poland - over 50 percent, in the case of most Central and Eastern European countries - even more than 75 percent.
One of the reasons for the increase in Russian gas imports in recent years is the closure of nuclear power plants in some EU countries - primarily in Germany
The Union's dependence on Russian gas greatly strengthens Russia's position and helps it regain its position as a global power
Jakub Jędrak - Member of the Polish Smog Alert (belongs to the Krakow Smog Alert and Warsaw Without Smog). A physicist by education, as part of his activity in the Polish Smog Alert, he deals primarily with the popularization of knowledge about the impact of air pollution on human health.
Another neighbor of Poland plans to move away from coal. The date was given
* The presented content is not the position of Onet, but the opinion of the author. The text was published on the Smoglab website. We show the material as part of the Onet Partner Program.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has been going on for almost eight years, may at any moment turn into open war again. For example, the White House warns against such a scenario.
Attack from three sides?
Both militarily and politically, the Russians are ready to invade Ukraine - although of course it is not certain whether they will attack, or what the scale of any possible Russian aggression will be.
Experts estimate that Russia has gathered around 100,000 at the border with Ukraine. soldiers. They also warn that the Russians may attack from three directions: not only from the Donbass and Russia to the west, but also from Belarus to the south, towards Kiev, and finally from the Black Sea to the north.
Both the US and EU countries (including Germany) are threatening Russia with sanctions should it dare to invade Ukraine. However, when it comes to possible reactions and actions by the European Union, Putin does not need to be too afraid of them.
A Russian "gas pistol" placed at a European temple
Russia has a powerful tool to put pressure on Europe, especially in winter - the country supplies a very significant, and year by year, part of the natural gas consumed by EU countries.
Natural gas imports to the European Union from 2017 to mid-2021, detailing supplies from Russia. Source: Eurostat.Natural gas imports to the European Union from 2017 to mid-2021, detailing supplies from Russia. Source: Eurostat. - Eurostat / smoglab.pl
In the second quarter of 2021, 42 percent of the total number of cars came from Russia. natural gas reaching the EU via pipelines.
For comparison, ten years earlier, the share of Russian gas in EU imports was 30 percent, and according to other sources: 24 percent.
The share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in natural gas imports to the EU is approx. 23%. Although it is growing, it can still by no means replace Russian gas. Especially since some of the LNG supplies to Europe also come from Russia.
On the other hand, LNG supplies from the USA to the Old Continent have been record high in recent weeks. This is partially offset by the sharp decline in supplies from Russia, which began in the fall and increased further with the advent of winter.
Why is Europe importing more and more gas from Russia?
There are several reasons. One is the decline in gas production by the Netherlands - once an important gas producer in recent years (the decline in natural gas production in Germany is of much less importance here).
Another is replacing coal-fired power plants with gas in many countries. Coal is the most destructive source of energy for the climate, so all countries where coal-fired power plants are still working, including Poland, should get rid of them as soon as possible. Another question is how beneficial the climate is to replace coal with natural gas in the electricity sector.
(The problem is complex: if we replace a coal-fired block with a gas-fired block, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of electricity produced drop roughly twice. But there are also emissions of methane, which is a very powerful greenhouse gas and the main component of natural gas. Methane enters the atmosphere during extraction. and transport of natural gas. On the other hand, deep coal mines are also a very important source of methane emissions).
However, the increase in the amount of natural gas imported from Russia into the EU is also largely due to the fact that some EU countries are giving up nuclear energy (such as Germany) or reducing its share in energy production (such as France). In a moment, Belgium will also get rid of nuclear energy.
Read also: Germany shut down the last nuclear reactors. They are also striving for a lack of nuclear power in other countries
They switch off the old ones and do not build new ones
In a broader sense, "nuclear abandonment" is about more than just shutting down existing plants. No less important is the abandonment or even ban on the construction of new facilities that could replace old blocks, taken out of service for technical reasons after working for several dozen years.
For two decades now, no new nuclear power plants have been allowed to be built in either Germany or Belgium. Similarly to the decommissioning of the existing reactors, the reason is that ... Greens, traditionally hostile to "nuclear", joined the ruling coalition in both these countries at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries.
(Although you probably know this story very well, it is never enough to remind you: in Germany, two decades ago, the SPD-Greens coalition decided to abandon nuclear energy. The German Chancellor was then Gerhard Schröder from the SPD. This politician is well known for his close relations with Vladimir Putin. and the signing of an agreement with Russia on the construction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline in the last weeks of his office as Chancellor. Schröder was soon appointed to the supervisory board of the Russian-controlled Nord Stream consortium that built the gas pipeline. oil company "Rosneft").
In France, in order to connect a new reactor to the grid, its operator has to shut down an old reactor at the same time. It is also solely the result of pressure from opponents of the nuclear power plant and of political decisions from the time when Francois Hollande was the president of France.
(Hollande also announced a reduction from 75% to 50% of the share of nuclear energy in the French energy mix by 2025. Fortunately, his successor has postponed this deadline by 10 years).
Gas instead of atom and carbon
Both in Belgium and in Germany, and even in France (which still has an impressive "fleet" of nuclear power plants and, fortunately, this will not change soon), new gas power plants are being built and will be built. This is because the shutdown of nuclear power plants must be replaced with something, and in Germany and France also coal plants. For technical reasons, these conventional, controllable energy sources cannot be replaced solely by uncontrollable renewable sources such as wind and sun.
Natural gas consumption is likely to increase significantly, at least temporarily. To the detriment of the climate, because gas is not a "low-emission" fuel, while nuclear power plants practically do not emit greenhouse gases.
If anyone has any doubts, I would like to remind you of the opinion of Markus Krebber, director of the German energy company RWE: in order to replace the nuclear units being shut down, and later the coal ones, Germany must build gas power plants with a capacity of up to 20-30 GW.
(For comparison, the highest power demand in Poland is still below 30 GW).
The Belgians, in turn, are planning to build several gas-fired power plants with a total capacity that may exceed 3 GW.
Read also: Belgium will shut down its nuclear power plants. Several gas-fired power plants will be built in their place
Of course, this does not mean that all these new gas blocks will run non-stop, but they will still use huge amounts of gas and emit a lot of CO 2 .
ADVERTISEMENT
Probably in some time, as the energy transformation progresses (e.g. with the development of hydrogen technologies) in each of these countries, gas consumption will start to decrease, but it will not happen too soon.
For the moment, however, we have the beginning of 2022, the middle of winter, the whole world is wondering if and when the Russians will enter Ukraine, and Putin has very strong cards in his hand. And at any time he can tell EU politicians "I'm checking".
How dangerous is Russian "gas weapon" for Europe?
It is true that Russia "lives" from the sale of energy resources - oil and gas are responsible for 40 percent of the total. the country's budget. Therefore, limiting the supply of hydrocarbons to Europe in the long run is completely not in the interest of the Russians.
However, if Putin decided to cut the EU off from Russian gas supplies for a while, we would be dealing with a very serious energy crisis in many places in Europe (including Germany).
Read also: Energy crisis in Norway. A price increase of up to 700 percent. The government pays extra money to the bills
Even if the worst-case scenario: "the lights go out and it gets cold" did not materialize - if neither the continuity of electricity supply nor the heating of households were to be jeopardized, European industry would suffer greatly.
Including the powerful German chemical industry, which needs natural gas not only as heat energy, but also as a source of hydrogen (for example for the synthesis of ammonia).
Germany is particularly important here, so let's focus on this country for a moment.
How much gas does Germany need?
The consumption of natural gas in Germany in 2021 amounted to approx. 100 billion cubic meters - approx. 5 times more than currently consumed by Poland each year.
Germany has gas storage facilities with a capacity of 24 billion cubic meters, i.e. a quarter of the annual consumption. Except that consumption is obviously higher in the winter months, and currently the gas storage facilities in Germany are not even half full.
ADVERTISEMENT
A few days ago, the German economy and climate ministry admitted that Germany's natural gas reserves would be sufficient for less than 18 days. Interestingly, some German gas storage facilities are controlled by ... Russian Gazprom.
Imports from all sources only in the period January - October amounted to 119 billion cubic meters. Own production is a small fraction of the demand. In addition, gas production in Germany decreased from 11 billion cubic meters. in 2010 up to 4.5 billion cubic meters. in 2020.
Russia is the main gas supplier for Germany and will remain so for at least the next few years. I haven't found exact figures, but Eurostat estimates show that in 2021, between 50 and 75% of the data came from Russia. gas imported to Germany (incidentally, in the case of Poland the situation was very similar).
Energiewende paradoxes
How much does energy production in Germany depend on natural gas today? Let's look at the numbers.
Half of German houses are heated with natural gas. This fuel is also responsible for almost 27 percent. primary energy consumption and approx. 15% of electricity production (data for 2021).
The role of gas in stabilizing the German power system is very important - gas power plants are used when electricity production from uncontrollable renewable sources: wind and sun, which Germany has a lot, is used.
The problem will arise when it does not shine strongly for a long time (which is rather normal in winter) and it does not blow properly, and there is a shortage of gas. Coal-fired power plants will have to operate at full capacity - again, to the detriment of the climate. Besides, Germany also imports hard coal mainly from Russia, only lignite is 100 percent. own.
The problem may be even greater that with the closure of three nuclear units at the turn of the year, 4 GW of power has disappeared, and in less than a year, another 4 gigawatts will disappear. The Germans will then be able to count on "nuclear power" only if they buy it from their neighbors.
For all these reasons, Germany - the most economically powerful country in the EU - so far has a critical need for Russian gas.
ADVERTISEMENT
The darkest dream of German politicians?
And therefore, from Germany's point of view, Russia's rapid annexation of Ukraine is by no means the worst-case scenario. After all, in 2014, Russia has already occupied a large part of Ukraine. And what? And nothing. We all continue to buy gas from the Russians.
A long-term armed conflict in which the West would decisively and unanimously support Ukraine would be much worse for German interests, imposing really severe sanctions on the Kremlin.
Read also: This year Poland may become independent from gas from Russia
And what are the politicians who rule Germany proposing to de-escalate the tension between Russia and Ukraine? Well ... cooperation in the development of renewable energy sources. At least that is what the German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said recently in an interview with "Der Spiegel".
Of course, there is some logic, strategy and sense in it - "let's give them some money, they won't do something really bad and crazy." But in the current situation, it sounds a bit like a distasteful joke.
It is true that the current German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz (SPD), has promised more than once tough sanctions against Russia if that country attacks Ukraine. The words themselves, however, do not cost much. We know, for example, that Germany is blocking the sale of weapons to Ukraine.
It can be argued that the Federal Republic of Germany has such rules - they do not sell weapons to countries engulfed in active armed conflict. Or that there is also a specific, historically conditioned attitude of the Germans towards Russia - a mixture of guilt for the monstrous crimes committed against the inhabitants of the Soviet Union during World War II and the trauma related to the entry of the Red Army into Germany.
But how long will the events of 80 years ago influence today's politics? And the question for here and now: who would survive longer in the "gas war to destruction" (if it had happened) - Germany with gas reserves for several days or maybe Russia?
ADVERTISEMENT
Energy policy can have military ramifications
According to analysts from www.eurointelligence.com, Germany's departure from nuclear energy is one of the most important strategic decisions in this century. Moreover, it is a decision that has made Russia a world power again. Even if there is a bit of an exaggeration in it, there is also a great deal of truth.
The 'plowing' of the German nuclear power plant is certainly much more important and more valuable for the Kremlin than the blocking of arms supplies to Ukraine by German politicians, which arouses so many (understandable and justified) negative emotions.
Of course, the problem is not limited to Germany itself. Looking more broadly, the abandonment of nuclear energy in other EU countries (the process began as early as the late 1970s in Austria) and the resulting growing dependence of Europe on Russian energy resources is a perfect scenario for Putin.
Read also: Energy prices jumped 300 percent in two months. What did governments do in 1973?
It has also been known for a long time that there are strong dependencies between energy policy, national security and military activities. We are reminded of this by the history of the oil crisis of 1973, about which Tomek Borejza recently wrote .
Today, the key to European energy independence are low-carbon renewable sources (wind and sun) and nuclear energy. Or rather, their combination in reasonable proportions, depending on a specific region and country.
The war is not over yet, the benefits for Russia are already there
In Europe, gas prices remain high, partly because of the high risk of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Markets are responding to the threat of a potential conflict - oil and gas prices are rising, and so are the revenues to the Russian budget.
ADVERTISEMENT
The invasion, which is not yet happening and which may never happen, has already paid off for the Kremlin.
A lesson for Poland
At the end, let's go back to our own backyard, because it's not fun here either. According to the recently published report of the Forum Energii think tank, Poland is one of the EU countries that become dependent on the import of energy resources the fastest.
Over the last two decades, we have paid 1.16 trillion zlotys (1160 billion zlotys!) For imported energy resources, and our dominant supplier is, of course, ... Russia.
Specifically, in the years 2000-2020 we spent PLN 802.9 billion on imported oil, PLN 285.7 billion on natural gas, and PLN 72.2 billion on coal. Imports of these fuels to Poland increased during that time by 756 percent (coal), 41 percent. (oil) and 118 percent. (gas).
And is it possible to say something optimistic? Fortunately, yes.
We are building the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline connecting Poland and Norway, which may soon make us independent of gas supplies from Russia. It's a pity we haven't built it for a long time, but better late than never.
This investment improves Poland's energy security, but does not change the fact that emissions from natural gas - be it Norwegian or Russian - are harmful to the climate. Or that you will have to pay dearly for the imported gas. As a sweetness, there is the awareness that Norway will not buy tanks with this money and will not invade anyone.
Also read: Coal prices go up sharply. Gas may be competitive even after the increases
Fortunately, we are also planning to build nuclear power plants. Unfortunately, again - as in the case of the gas pipeline to Norway - many years have been wasted. In an alternative, better world, where our politicians think and responsibly plan their actions in the perspective of decades, not one term, electricity from the first Polish "nuke" could already flow on the network today.
In recent years, photovoltaics has developed very nicely, but after changing the rules for billing energy, the development of solar energy will most likely slow down significantly in Poland.
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And perhaps most importantly: the development of onshore wind energy is still blocked in Poland since 2016. And without it, it is difficult to count on a successful and relatively quick transformation of our archaic energy system, which may crumble at any moment.
It is clear that we could transform the Polish energy sector much better and faster. It is beneficial not only for the climate, but also for the Polish economy and security.