Polish politics and economy

[tufta]

Dec 5, 2008 5:16:31 GMT 1 valpomike said:

I understand it is very hard to get a mortgage in Poland, is this the case? Why is it? I also heard it is hard to get a loan for a new car, is this the case? Why is it?
Today the exchange rate is again over 3.02 per 1.00 American dollar. Last year when I visited Poland, it was 2.73 to 1.00 And this is changing each day, why is this? All of the Europe stock market is in worst shape than ours is, why is this?

Mike

Mike, almost no-one in Poland is buying cars or houses or apartments for cash Yes we have a normal banking system

[valpomike]

On a used car say cost $10,000.00, how much would you need down on this, and how long can you make payments, and what is the interest rate used for this? What is the interest rate used for a home? Also, what rate is used on credit cards?

Mike

[tufta]

Dec 9, 2008 16:33:25 GMT 1 valpomike said:

On a used car say cost $10,000.00, how much would you need down on this, and how long can you make payments, and what is the interest rate used for this? What is the interest rate used for a home? Also, what rate is used on credit cards?

Mike

Mike,I don't remember exact rates But they are (were? pior to recession in Eurozone?) very inviting.

[tufta]

Let's check this thread prior to Christmas 2009 ;D


After several bountiful years, the Polish economy is slowing down and experts' predictions for the upcoming year are unenthusiastic. While the economy's foundations are strong, the impact of the international crisis is expected to be deep and broad.

Though on solid ground, Poland's economy is on the road to a stormy 2009

----

The fast-paced GDP growth seen in Poland during the past two years will not have an encore in 2009. Experts agree that the effect of the global financial crisis, as well as the appearance of a domestic cool-down following years of prosperity, will take their toll.

"These two factors are equal contributors," according to Marcin Peterlik, an economic analyst from the Gdańsk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR).

Downward trends are overwhelmingly evident in next year's forecasts. The government recently reduced its GDP growth forecast for 2009 from 4.8 percent to 3.7 percent, for example. In comparison, Poland's GDP growth in 2007 amounted to 6.5 percent and the government's estimate for 2008 stands at 4.2 percent.

The government's forecast is less optimistic than the one presented in the World Bank's EU10 Regular Economic Report October 2008, which predicts that

Poland's GDP will reach 4.0 percent in 2009 and 5.4 percent this year. More sobering figures have been presented by the National Bank of Poland and JP Morgan - the former sees 2009 GDP growth amounting to 2.8 percent, while the latter has forecast 1.5 percent.

Although the Polish economy remains largely stable - especially in comparison to many of its neighbors - experts stress that no economy in the modern world is a proverbial island.

"We are linked to other countries around the world. If they suffer, so will we," said Krzysztof Badowski, managing director at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.

The amount of long-term harm done to Poland's economy is hard to gauge for now. According to Jarosław Górski, an expert with the Sobieski Institute, "It is difficult to make forecasts for social sciences such as economics in times of prosperity. In times of turbulence it is hardly possible at all."

ust the beginning

While concrete figures are hard to predict, experts note that trends will continue to be negative. "The leading indicators are much worse than the current situation. We are only just entering the [slowdown] phase," Górski said.

"This may be the beginning of real problems in the economy," commented Tomasz Starus, the head of the risk assessment department at Euler Hermes.

According to Roland Berger's Badowski, the business world foresees three possible scenarios for the Polish economy in the near future: a rapid recovery; an 18- to 24-month recession; or a deep, protracted depression.

"The first scenario is the least likely," Badowski said.

n a bad mood

Negative sentiment and widespread uncertainty among investors is further eroding confidence in the economy, both in Poland and abroad. "The crisis has had a huge psychological impact," said Peterlik.

The prevailing negative mood in the market has only been reinforced by the lack of bank financing. "Money is being made available nowadays only to those companies with [guaranteed funds]," Euler Hermes' Starus stressed.

Uncertainty, pessimism and the inaccessibility of credit have conspired to stifle new investments.

"Right now, any investments being made are due to decisions taken in previous years. No such decisions are being made now," Roland Berger's Badowski said. He added that this will have serious repercussions for the 2009-2010 period.

According to Górski, it is crucial that the Polish government and state institutions take action to fortify the climate for investment in order to fight the psychological element of the global crisis.

"This should include a series of measures aimed at increasing Poland's stability, such as the creation of a long-term budget policy," he said.

Growing challenge
Polish GDP growth (in percent)

Period GDP growth
2006 Q1 5.4
2006 Q2 6.3
2006 Q3 6.6
2006 Q4 6.6
2007 Q1 7.3
2007 Q2 6.5
2007 Q3 6.5
2007 Q4 6.4
2008 Q1 6.0
2008 Q2 5.8
2008 Q3 4.4
2008 Q4* 4.2
2009 Q1* 3.2
2009 Q2* 3.4
2009 Q3* 4.1
2009 Q4* 4.6
* forecast
Source: IBnGR

Who is most at risk?

While experts generally agree that Poland will suffer less overall than most of its EU peers, certain sectors of the economy will be hit harder than others. Industries which are heavily reliant on exports are expected to suffer most in 2009.

"The CEE region has been the production base for a number of international concerns who target their production to the Western European market," Badowski said.

The current slowdown in the construction and real estate markets is expected to continue as well. Badowski also predicted that the clothing industry would feel the impact significantly.

"This branch grows fast in times of economic growth and falls fast in times of a slowdown," he said.

The stakes are high for Poland, since the country is in the process of moving from a manufacturing economy to a knowledge-based system.

"We still have a long way to go and the process is all the more difficult in times of crisis," Sobieski Institute's Górski said.

Euler Hermes' Starus noted that some foreign companies have already begun to close factories in Poland, including those that have been functioning well.

"It is characteristic that capital returns home [in times of crisis]," he said, adding however, that this would not be a sweeping trend.

The crisis has pushed many companies to alter their strategies, sending some firms searching for new niches in the market, for example. But few businesses will be willing to drastically reduce their workforces.

"Instead, they will move their workers to carry out tasks previously performed by outsourcing services," Roland Berger's Badowski said.

Starus also noted that the risk of bankruptcy would be greatest in the period just before the crisis ends, whenever that may be.

"It is at that time that the majority of the bankruptcies will take place. This will happen in 18 to 24 months time," he predicted.

Exchange of questions

One area of particular concern for the economy is the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Investors are wondering what 2009 will hold for the CEE region's largest bourse, after it endured a largely unfavorable 2008. In the year to mid-December, the main WIG index lost 50.7 percent and the blue-chip WIG20 saw a 48.5 percent loss.

According to Sobiesław Pająk, an analyst from the brokerage IDMSA, the situation on the bourse will depend upon which GDP prediction comes to pass.

"If economic growth stands at three percent, then stocks may be attractive. If it is one percent, the situation will be more problematic," he said.

He added that the WSE's indices could regain strength in the short term.

"For short-term investments, banks and real estate firms could be a good option," he said, stressing that share liquidity in such companies must be good in order for investors to be able to withdraw quickly if necessary.

But the general trend will be that of falling share prices, Pająk said, adding that investments in more predictable companies - those less susceptible to market fluctuations - would be advisable. These include telecommunications or pharmaceutical firms, he said.

Strong domestic demand

While Poland's economy will see a slowdown, there's no reason to fear an out-and-out catastrophe, experts said. A number of factors will positively influence the economy in 2009. The drop in exports, while painful, is expected to be balanced by relatively strong demand in the domestic market.

"About 40 percent of our economy is reliant upon exports. This is much less than in Hungary, for example, where this reliance reaches 70 percent," Starus said.

Consumption remains strong and Q4 is expected to see healthy profits for retailers. Growing salaries and a relatively low level of consumer debt among Poles are also seen as reasons for optimism, experts said.

Infrastructure investments to be carried out in the near future will also have a positive effect on the Polish economy.

"I sincerely hope that preparations for the Euro 2012 soccer championships will reduce unemployment. This should ameliorate the effects of the crisis," Badowski said.

Uncertain outlook

The year 2009, however painful for Poland, may also prove an important opportunity for the market to cut out unneeded fat. Weaker companies or those that are not managed effectively are likely to fold, cleansing the market, Euler Hermes' Starus said.

"There will be no holy cows," he noted.

IDMSA's Pająk disagreed, however. "Any company, even the healthiest, can get turned upside down in times of crisis," he said.

Either man could be proven right over the next 12 months. At this time in 2009, will any seemingly impervious companies have foundered? Will GDP growth have shrunk to an anemic 1.5 percent or settled at a relatively robust four percent? Will a significant amount of foreign capital have been pulled out of Poland or will little have changed?

Only time will tell the full story.

[Bonobo]

Dec 20, 2008 11:33:00 GMT 1 tufta said:

Let's check this thread prior to Christmas 2009 ;D
After several bountiful years, the Polish economy is slowing down and experts' predictions for the upcoming year are unenthusiastic. While the economy's foundations are strong, the impact of the international crisis is expected to be deep and broad.

I am not worried by the crisis. Yet, I am not going to be lavish before Christmas. The explanation is simple: I am mean. Always. Both in good and bad times.

Because I am from Krakow.

Yet, I am going to give you sth for Christmas.

[Bonobo]

Poland Scores
By George H. Wittman
The American Spectator
12.19.08

Poland has begun to exercise unexpected leadership in at least one
area of European affairs. In October President Donald Tusk
successfully challenged both France's President Nicolas Sarkozy and
the president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, on the subject of reducing Europe's green house gas emissions.

With 94% of its electricity generated by coal furnaces Poland is
highly dependent on its cheap coal resources. Agreeing to Sarkozy's
original plan to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by 2020 included a requirement that all utilities would purchase and sell permits for the uncontrolled emissions through a public auction.

To the surprise of many, both Germany and Italy quickly followed the Polish lead in blocking the EU Commission plan to have Warsaw, among others, forced into the considerable expense of obtaining the permits in this manner.

Under the new agreement, coal-dependent countrie s will be sharing in the revenue produced in permit sales to non-exempt countries. With this stimulus it is expected that technologically backward nations will be assisted financially to invest in clean technology. Poland is estimated to receive 15 billion euros during the period of 2013 and 2020 when the agreement goes into effect.

It appears incontestable that PM Donald Tusk in one year has led
Poland in a successful effort to patch up relations with the European
Union in general and Germany in particular. The really striking bit
of diplomatic sleight-of-hand was in building a bridge to improved
contacts with Russia. And all of this has been accomplished at the
same time as maintaining a special relationship with the United
States.

Using France's turn at the rotating presidency of the EU as a chance
to enhance his status as a European leader, Nicolas Sarkozy had
placed all his cards on the issue of attaining agreement on guiding
the world in establishing climate change targets. It was the moment
for Sarkozy to shine in partnership with the EU Commission head,
Barroso. Armed with his indefatigable energy, Sarkozy used the old
Gaullist ploy of finding something to lead -- no matter what it was --
and charging forward.

Unfortunately for the French president, the Poles, along with the
global financial crisis, got in the way. The original impetus of the
Sarkozy plan was sidetracked by the need to acquiesce to Poland's
insistence on a special status due to its far greater disadvantages
in generating electricity. The Germans, for their own manufacturing
interests, jumped in supporting the Poles. Meanwhile, the left wing
of the European Parliament decided the original plan was not going to be effective fast enough to suit their green interest.

Thus the Polish prime minister with the help of the new improved
German relationship saved the day for his and other countries'
interests. While most European commentators hesitate to credit the
Polish action as a masterstroke, the fact is that Donald Tusk saved
Sarkozy's face and perhaps even his political future by allowing him
the public victory that culminated in the final agreement last
weekend. The timing was perfect; it allowed the French president to
return as a hero to the immediate and real problems affecting the
French economy.

Whatever difficulties Poland continues to face economically and
politically in relation to its European neighbors, Donald Tusk and
his diligent foreign economic and political team have succeeded in
pushing their even harder-working nation to a primary role within the EU. This is no small feat among their traditionally powerful western neighbors. (Poland is second among EU countries in amount of per capita hours worked per week.)

The days of backward-looking leadership of the Kaczynski twins
appears to be heading for the dustbin of history as only Lech, the
president, remains in office, with limited power. More importantly is
the growth of influence of this principal Western Slavic nation in
European affairs -- an accomplishment that clearly is contrary to
Russian proprietary interests in Eastern Europe.

There is a special relationship between the United States and Poland that goes back to the support given during the American Revolution. This relationship showed once again with the Polish combat contingents sent in response to U.S. requests for assistance in Iraq and Afghanistan.

As much as Nicolas Sarkozy and Jose Manuel Barroso see a European entente on a climate pact as a possible global guide, the rise of the fiercely democratic and hardworking Poland as increasingly influential in European Union affairs is of considerable importance to the United States. It's good to remember who your friends are!

[Bonobo]

Average Pole does not worry about his future
Puls Biznesu, Poland
15.12.2008

The Poles have not changed their attitude towards saving money since September. They can see the crisis but they are not worried about their portfolio. This may help the economy.

When the crisis broke out in September, the majority of indices
showing the moods of households dived. In November, the percentage of people worrying about Poland's future economic situation was 19 points higher than this representing optimists. Two months ago, the difference amounted to 9 percentage points only. The index showing the labor market situation changed even more. The number of Poles expecting the situation to deteriorate exceeds by 15.8 percent those who don't fear this.

These are all the decreases, however. The index showing how prone the Poles are to save money, has remained nearly unchanged. It amounted to 35 percent in September and 36.4 percent in November.

"People fear the crisis but they don't expect that it will hit
themselves. They believe that others may lose their jobs, not them.
Otherwise, there would be much fewer people believing that they will manage to save money", Grzegorz Ogonek, INB Bank Slaski economist said.

This is good news for companies which may hope that despite economic crisis the Poles will continue to spend money. However, economists warn that consumption won't be as high as it was in the firs half of the year when retail sales dynamics amounted to 24 percent.

[franciszek]

Here in the UK the economic slow down is bleak the closure of Woolworth's and MFI are quite a shock but people are still spending money for Christmas i am in a fortunate position that plumbing and gas fitting is pretty recession proof while nobody is safe i still worry about losing my job and do feel for those who find themselves out of work .I strongly believe that the war in Iraq and Afghanistan have played a big part in this global slowdown for this i blame Mr Bush & Mr Blair those bullets &bombs don't come cheap and some has to pay at some time,OK so Mr Brown blames the banks and greedy businessmen but never the government speaks like a true politician.I am interested to see what the new president elect does I think he will be a welcome change I know Mike does not share this view and I don't wish to start a political row by this statement I just hope all are leaders can resolve these problems and bring stability to the world. MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERY BODY!!!!

[Bonobo]

www.tvn24.pl/-1,1579022,0,1,bojkot-tvn_u-nie-przetrwa-stycznia,wiadomosc.html

It is rumoured that PiS led by Jarosław Kaczyński is going to lift their self-imposed ban on appearing on a major private TV channel, TVN. They have refused invitations to political debates and interviews for 6 months. Now it is clear the party suffered losses due to the ban, while the TV channel hasn`t.

It seems Jarosław Kaczyński`s emotional problems had taken an upper hand over his reason again. You can`t turn down TV and journalists in the 21 century.

[Bonobo]

Polish Cigarette Traders Bemoan Tougher Rules for EU's Frontier
By Katya Andrusz

Dec. 25 (Bloomberg) -- It's Christmas in frozen eastern Poland, and
Pawel Mlynarski is blaming the government for taking away his
livelihood: contraband cigarettes.

Until recently, Mlynarski, a 25-year-old unemployed builder, would
cross the border into Ukraine as many as four times a night. Each
time, he would return with at least one carton of 200 cigarettes, or
10 packs, to sell in the bars of his hometown of Przemysl, 15
kilometers (9 miles) from the European Union's eastern frontier.

Then, on Dec. 1, Poland cut the import allowance to 40 smokes, or two packs. "This is an absolute tragedy," says Mlynarski, who used to make as much as 20 zloty ($6.80) per carton selling packs of
Prima. "Most people around here did the border. It was our only way of earning decent cash."

The new limits are a result of the EU's expansion a year ago of its
passport-free movement of people, the so-called Schengen area, to
include Poland. That forced the nation to bolster its -- and the
EU's -- eastern border. Now locals complain they are left with an
unemployment rate above 17 percent, the highest in Poland, and the specter of more job losses as trade at the bars and cafes at border crossings collapses. Demonstrators threw stones and eggs at police to protest the new rules earlier this month.

"A gap has now opened up, and we have to fill it," says Robert Choma, the mayor of Przemysl. "There are all these rules that come along to tighten the border, but nothing that balances out the work that's lost."

Discount Puffs

A pack of Prima in Ukraine costs the equivalent of about 1.20 zloty,
about two-thirds less than in Poland, Mlynarski says. The profit a
seller could pocket every month exceeded the national average wage and was tax-free, according to Artur Polakiewicz, a sociologist who is running a project to research illegal and semi-legal employment in the border region.

Before Poland joined Schengen, it was the Ukrainians who dominated the border trade, passing unhindered into the country bearing cigarettes, alcohol and even gasoline to sell to bargain-hungry Poles.

As Poland loosened controls for EU citizens and abandoned checks on
its western border under Schengen, it tightened security for non-EU
states to the east as part of its promise to clamp down on illegal
immigrants. That made it harder for the Ukrainians to get in -- and
opened up a gap in the contraband market that Poles themselves
happily filled.

Doing Well

"The Poles in the border region did very well for themselves," says
Jan Pieklo, director of the Polish-Ukrainian Cooperation Foundation.

But the Polish government, along with fellow eastern EU members
Hungary and Slovakia, adopted a version of an EU regulation that
reduces the number of cigarettes individuals can bring into the bloc
via land border points by 80 percent.

It was the only way to crack down on the illegal trade in the towns
and villages along the border, says Witold Lisicki, spokesman for the
Polish customs service.

The 200-cigarette allowance was supposed to be occasional, not daily, and for the purchaser's own use. Almost all of the cartons ended up for sale in Poland or western Europe, he says.

"We couldn't just put up with such a violation of the law," says
Lisicki. "But as long as prices in the east are lower, there will
always be the temptation to smuggle."

Polakiewicz says most tobacco traders register as unemployed to
ensure their health care is covered by the state, although they have
had little motivation to take on legal work because it is so badly
paid. Salaries in and around Przemysl are often as low as 800 zloty a month before tax, according to the local labor office.

That leaves Mlynarski, the builder, considering the next steps in
what he sees as a bleak future.

"There's no industry around here, just a few shops -- and what with
the economic crisis, they'll probably be laying people off," says
Mlynarski. "I have no prospects."

[Bonobo]

Twins take revenge on new Polish government

By The Daily Telegraph
25 Dec 2008

www.expressbuzz.com/Images/article/2008/12/25/kaczynski_25dec.jpg

WARSAW: The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, has accused the President Lech Kaczynski of joining forces with his identical twin Jaroslaw, the man Mr Tusk ousted from office, in an attempt to undermine the government.


The centre-Right premier has become increasingly exasperated with what he sees as President Kaczynski's partisan support for his brother Jaroslaw, who now leads the main opposition party, through the frequent use of the presidential veto, which has left swathes of government legislation stalled.

"The president does not hide the fact that he is trying to help his brother and his party with behaviour that will hinder the government and fan social tensions," said an angry Mr Tusk after the president vetoed yet another flagship government bill.

Bronislaw Komorowski, a high-ranking member of Mr Tusk's party, Civic Platform, has even gone as far as to call the president "a tool of his brother's party, Law and Justice".

Civic Platform officials point to the fact that in November alone, some eight pieces of government legislation were stopped in their tracks by the veto-wielding president.

Behind the scenes government politicians talk of the 59-year-old Kaczynski twins, who once dominated Polish politics and president and prime minister, as seeking revenge on a party and a prime minister they disdain.

But both Kaczynskis have strenuously denied the accusations, with the president arguing that he only uses the veto in the national interest, and in turn they have accused the prime minister of seeking to make cheap political capital out of the fact that they are twins.

"There is no such thing as the 'Kaczynski brothers' as a political entity," said the president, rebuffing an offer from Mr Tusk aimed at both of them.

While the arguments and accusations make colourful headlines for Poland's media, the dispute could have grave implications for the country.

Mr Tusk is determined that Poland adopts the euro on Jan 1, 2012. To achieve this requires a change to the constitution, but with both Kaczynskis arguing that 2012 is too soon the prime minister's grand plan could be left dead in the water.

[Bonobo]

9.1 percent unemployed in Poland
thenews.pl
23.12.2008

The unemployed rate in November was 9.1 percent, according to data released by the central statistical office (GUS).

1,398,000, were registered as unemployed, outnumbering the October's figure by 46,000.

Almost a half of the jobless live in the countryside.

Regions with the highest unemployment rate the Warmian- Masurian province in north- eastern Poland, Swiêtokrzyskie in the south, West Pomerania in the north west, the northern Kuyavian - Pomeranian province and Subcarpathian province in south- eastern Poland.

[Bonobo]

Poland Can't Outrun Recession
Javier Espinoza
Forbes.com
12.31.08

LONDON - Amid the chaos in the financial markets, Poland's emerging
economy was still seen as a potential savior with the IMF and OECD
expecting its gross domestic product to grow by 3.0% next year. But as the euro zone enters a deeper and longer-than- expected recession, Poland's exposure to the 15-nation area that adopted the euro a decade ago is set to have a negative impact on the country's growth.

Dariusz Filar, a Monetary Policy Council member for the European
Central Bank, said on Wednesday the jobless rate in Poland could
rise above 10.0% in 2009, according to TradeTheNews. He didn't rule out a further interest rate cut at the council's upcoming January
meeting, following its 75 basis point cut this month.

Filar also highlighted Poland's "high dependency" on the global
economic situation, that has prompted investors to leave equity
markets and has pushed many companies, particularly retailers, to
file for administration, a type of bankruptcy, as trading becomes
increasingly hard.

These catastrophic damages in the economy will diminish Poland's
growth and pushed up the unemployment rates especially in the first half of 2009, according to Wisniewski Yacek, chief economist at
Raiffeisenbank Poland in Warsaw.

"Poland is twice as exposed to the international financial crisis as
it was five years ago. Next year, we estimate this exposure will
force exporters to reduce their workforce," said Yacek, who
downgraded his estimates for GDP growth from 5.0% to 1.5% in
2009. "Poland's international exposure and a faster wave of
immigration of Polish people coming from the U.K. who find
themselves unable to find jobs there will increase jobless levels to
12.0%, according to our estimates."

Unemployment rate levels in Poland had been on a steady decline from a high point of 20.7% in 2003 to a fall of 8.8% in October 2008 but economists now estimate these levels to continue rising as the euro zone economies struggle.

Poland's exports over the last 12 months Poland's exports totaled
121.0 billion euros ($168.4 billion) compared to 65.0 billion euros
($90.5 billion) in 2004, according to official figures. A total of
25.0% of current exports is sent to Germany and 65.0% is traded in
the rest of Europe.

"If Europe takes a hit, Poland will be hit too," Yacek told
Forbes.com.

[Bonobo]

Crisis? What crisis?
thenews.pl 08.01.2009

The opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party has criticized Prime
Minister Donald Tusk for going on holiday when Poland is threatened by the gas crisis.

"It is to his discredit," said party spokesman Jan Kurski,
commenting, Thursday, on the behaviour of PM Tusk, who is currently taking a skiing holiday in Slovakia.

Kurski said that Tusk's party, Civic Platform, has been from the very
beginning of its term of office not invested in vital gas-ports in
Gdansk or Swinoujscie, northern Poland, enabling ships carrying gas
to arrive at Polish shores – a project launched in 2006 when Law and Justice were in power.

Although both economy vice- minister Adam Szejnfeld and the head of the Civic Platform's parliamentary party Zbigniew Chlebowski have reassured that Poland is not threatened by the Ukraine gas crisis, the situation remains rather pessimistic, as some industrial clients have already experienced a drop in their supply under special decrees given to Poland's gas distributor by the government.

[Bonobo]

Poles say yes to euro, and referendum
thenews.pl
06.01.2009

The number of supporters of the single currency in Poland has
drastically increased, but still a high percentage want a referendum
on the issue.

A poll by GfK Polonia reveals that 65 percent are currently in
favour of adopting the euro, up 11 percent from six months ago.

However, some 70 percent believe that the matter should be decided by the nation in a national referendum though this figure is by some nine percentage points less than in September 2008.

Fifty nine percent of those questioned believe that the introduction
of the euro in Poland will have positive effects for the country. In
June 2008 this opinion was shared only by 36 percent of respondents.

Last autumn Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that his government
will do its best to join the euro zone as soon as 2012. Poland is
carefully watching the experience of Slovakia, which adopted euro
currency on January 1.

[tomek]

Euro may be good but peopoles worry at prices. Will it suddenly go up when Poland takes euro?

[Bonobo]

Economic crisis finally hits Poland
The Associated Press
Thursday, January 29, 2009

WARSAW, Poland: The global economic crisis has finally hit Poland.

A string of dreary statistics this week shows that the once-booming
economy has started to sputter: manufacturing fell significantly at
the end of last year, unemployment shot up and officials are finally
admitting that Poland is hurting.

Poland "will not be an island resistant to trends outside its
borders," Prime Minister Donald acknowledged Tuesday as he announced a plan to seek budget savings this year to cover a likely shortfall in state revenues.

For months, Poland's leaders and economists insisted the country
could avoid the global turmoil thanks to its healthy banking sector
and low mortgage and consumer debt levels.

Shoppers kept spending at the gleaming new malls that have mushroomed in recent years across Poland — by far the largest of 10 formerly communist countries that have joined the European Union in recent years.

But the days of denial have now passed.

"Everybody is worrying," said Maja Goettig, chief economist for BPH
Bank in Warsaw. "The outlook is worsening each month, and the
question is how big this slowdown will be. We've just entered it — and nobody knows when it will end."

The economy that grew at a brisk 6.7 percent in 2007 — swelling the ranks of a middle class with money to spend on fine wines, fancy cars and large homes — slowed to a still-healthy 4.8 percent in 2008, according to figures released by the government's Central Statistical Office Thursday.

Data released this week have shown that Poland felt a chill toward
the end of the year as the global crisis hit the country's western
European neighbors and the United States. Unemployment rose in
December for the second straight month, reaching 9.5 percent — due in part to a slowdown in the manufacturing sector as foreign orders fall.

Industrial production in November fell 8.9 percent over the previous
year; data released Tuesday showed another 4.4 percent year-on-year fall in December.

The same day, the central bank cut interest rates by a hefty three-
quarters of a percentage point for the second consecutive month. It
cited a "stronger than previously expected economic slowdown" in
cutting its benchmark rate to 4.25 percent.

As worries deepen, Poland's zloty has depreciated significantly in
recent months against major currencies like the euro and the U.S.
dollar.

The question now is how bad things will get. Many experts still
believe Poland can weather the storm better than other European
countries and manage modest growth in 2009, although it exports
heavily to countries already in recession.

Goettig says her bank predicts 2 percent growth for now, but expects to revise that downward to zero growth. Tusk, the prime minister, said the government's "pessimistic" scenario is for 1.7 percent growth.

Another source of instability comes from the fact that many of the
Poles who bought homes in recent years took out mortgages in Swiss francs. Now that the zloty has declined, some are finding it harder to repay their loans.

Despite the souring mood, there are some reasons for optimism.

Polish banks are tightly regulated and were never burdened by the
toxic assets that have brought down financial institutions elsewhere.
Economy Minister Waldemar Pawlak says Polish banks, mostly owned by large Western European banks, are often in a much better situation than their parent companies.

And bucking the larger trend, retail sales in December grew 6.6
percent over the same month in 2007, better than experts expected.

However, the state statistics office said this week that consumer
confidence is now falling.

Agata Lagan, who runs a string of high-end clothing shops throughout Poland, attests to that. She said December sales fell by 30 percent in her Lilla Moda shops in Warsaw year on year.

Another factor weighing on profits is that the battered zloty has
made it more expensive to import the goods.

"Usually when we have a new collection, the shops are full of
customers ready to shop on the first and second days," she said. But when a new collection arrived two weeks ago, the crowd was less than half the usual size.

"Everyone is waiting for discounts," she said.

[Bonobo]

Polish govt to help jobless pay mortgages
WARSAW, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Poland's government will help unemployed
Poles pay their mortgages for up to a year after losing their job,
head of the ruling party's parliamentary caucus, Zbigniew Chlebowski,
said on Saturday.
The measure, aimed at alleviating households of those hit by the
spreading global financial crisis, may cost the budget about 300-400
million zlotys ($78.74 million).
Chlebowski, speaking in an interview on TVN CNBC, said the government
assistance may target a few hundred thousand people.
'The state, through the labour offices, will offer help for a year.
How big the amount will be...that decision is still to be made,'
Chlebowski said.
Earlier in the week, the prime minister said details of the programme
would be ready within the next few weeks.
At the end of 2008, Poles had a total of 194 billion zlotys in
mortgages, with 135 billion of the total in foreign currencies.

[Bonobo]

Greek workers poorest in EU
MINA
3/6/09

Greece is an EU country with the highest percentage of poor workers among all EU member states.

The European Commission's report found that in 2006, 13 percent of workers in Greece lived well under the poverty threshold. Poland is next on the list of EU countries with 10 percent of workers living below the poverty threshold.

The EU's average is 8 percent.

In 2007, 20 percent of employed and unemployed in Greece were living below the poverty threshold. For 2008/09 due to the increasingly difficult economy, this number is expected to increase to 28%. //03.06.09 MiNa

[Bonobo]

Poland is slowly entering a post-industrial age.


Polish mine region sheds industrial past for dynamic future
DPA
3/7/09

Gliwice, Poland - The Gliwice mine in southern Poland no longer produces the coal that made the region known as an industrial powerhouse during communism. But it's hardly a relic of the past. The mine's smoky bricks have been polished to a lively orange, and its interior renovated to house a business and education centre with a state-of-the- art lecture hall.

The city's mayor, Zygmunt Frankiewicz, says Gliwice is a symbol of the changes in the coal-rich Silesia region, and a sign pointing to the province's dynamic future.

After the collapse of traditional steel and coal mining industries, Gliwice was one of the region's poorest cities. Then in the late 1990s it experienced an economic boom when US auto giant GM became its first investor and some 60 others followed. Today it boasts investments worth more than 2 billion euros.

"The transformation is still happening, but most changes have already been made," Frankiewicz said. "We were aware that heavy industry was a big setback and we had to help transformation by pulling in investors."

Mining is still the backbone of the Silesia region, with coal providing 94 per cent of Poland's energy and some 117,000 jobs. Poland is Europe's biggest coal producer. In the south, coal mining is a powerful tradition and way of life.

Some 30 mines were shut down after communism fell in 1989, but officials say Silesia remains wealthy and today makes up nearly 20 per cent of Poland's gross domestic product.

The effects of the financial crisis have been little felt there, officials say, because mine closures forced the region to diversify and look for investors to compensate for losses.

Recently the district hosted the Economic Forum Silesia, a three-day meeting on investment opportunities that attracted some 600 people from nearly 60 countries.

Officials are now hoping to profit off clean coal technology and draw a mix of industries to the region to keep the financial crisis at bay.

The changes in Silesia are fueled in part by the European Union, which in December 2007 approved a plan that by 2020 will cut Poland's carbon dioxide pollution to 20 per cent below 1990 levels.

The EU is also planning to put money into clean coal technology, adding another incentive for Silesia to go green.

Officials in the region say Silesia has potential to become the centre of clean coal technology and research, and that a healthy mix of industries will make the financial crisis little-felt.

"The ideal solution would be clean coal technology and if that would be Silesia's focus," Frankiewicz said. "Because this is where the coal is."

The EU also plans to spend at least 3 billion euros to fund 12 experimental "carbon capture and storage" plants, which would pump CO2 from coal-fired power station underground instead of releasing it into the atmosphere.

Some may wonder if "Silesia is still going to be about coal," said Jerzy Buzek, member of the European Parliament, but others already call it "the capital of clean energy in Europe" that could profit off green technology because of its location.

"The EU plans to invest a good amount in clean coal technology, and we could really profit from that. Silesia has a great location..., " Buzek said. "We are building a base for clean energy that can flow from Silesia to the rest of Europe."

[Bonobo]

A Communist legacy
Poland is the last eastern European country to resolve claims from property seized by the communists.
By Jan Cienski - GlobalPost
March 20, 2009

WARSAW — Until recently, the purple-pink Branicki Palace on the edge of Warsaw's Old City served as the mayor's office.

"The communists took the palace from my family and we are finally getting close to getting it back," said Countess Anna Mycielska.

Indeed, bureaucrats are busy packing up their files and furnishings following a recent legal victory by heirs of the palace's World War II-era owner.

The question of property restitution has bedeviled eastern European governments since the end of communism in 1989. Twenty years later, Poland is the only ex-communist country still resolving the problem.

Cases where heirs win back the rights to property that belonged to their family prior to the war are still a rarity – even Mycielska and her cousins may not get their hands on the palace for years.

The palace was destroyed during the war: Following the Warsaw Uprising of 1944 it was nothing more than a smoking pile of ruins. The palace's owner, Franciszek Salezy Potocki, gathered materials and began to rebuild, but the newly installed communist government confiscated the palace in 1949, along with most of the other private property in the Polish capital.

As well as taking over city property, the communist government nationalized factories, shops and all farms larger than 50 hectares (or 123.5 acres), which destroyed the pre-war aristocracy.

"We were deported to Moscow for three years before being allowed to return home to Poland," said Anna Wolska, whose family home is the Wilanow Palace in southern Warsaw, once home to Jan III Sobieski, a Polish king, and now one of the Polish capital's leading museums and tourist attractions.

<!--pagebreak- ->

Wolska's family, like other pre-war aristocrats, was prevented from living anywhere near its old home as the communist government embarked on a calculated policy of blotting out all traces of the land-owning nobility.

Before the war, the Polish countryside was dotted with more than 20,000 manor houses, castles and palaces — now only about 1,000 remain, the majority of them in ruins.

But there are no plans to return most of those properties, especially those lying outside of Warsaw, to their original owners.

"It would be unjust to return property to some and not to others," said Treasury Minister Aleksander Grad. He has prepared legislation that would create a fund of about 20 billion zlotys ($5.8 billion) that would pay out a portion of land claims over a period of 10 to 15 years.

That plan infuriates the heirs, who estimate that the total value of nationalized real estate exceeds 100 billion zlotys, but who are most interested in getting the original property returned.

"We simply want our houses back," said Michal Sobanski, who runs a law firm, Restitutio ad Integrum, that seeks the return of confiscated property.

But simply giving back what was taken is a political non-starter in Poland. Many argue that all Poles suffered because of the imposition of communist rule — some by having their ancestral property taken away, others by laboring as teachers or workers for laughably small salaries, leaving them now to survive on tiny pensions — and that it is unfair to single out the descendants of the aristocracy.

"Nothing should be given back," reads an online comment to a newspaper article on the imminent return of the Branicki palace. "Damn the wealthy landowners. It was rebuilt by the state and it should stay the property of the state."

The issue is further complicated by unresolved Jewish property claims. The millions of Jews murdered in the Holocaust left very few survivors, and the vast majority of them decided not to stay in Poland after the war. Houses, synagogues and community centers were either expropriated or simply became the property of Poles.

Some Jewish groups would like all that property returned, but the Polish government is only prepared to return property to the heirs of the original owners, a solution that would leave the bulk of Jewish property unclaimed.

There is also a worry that any restitution scheme would open the door to German property claims. After the war, at the behest of the USSR and with the agreement of the U.S. and Britain, Poland's borders were shifted hundreds of kilometers to the west, taking in large swathes of pre-war Germany while leaving about a third of Poland in the Soviet Union. Millions of Germans were deported, but some of those people want to get their original property back.

The lack of progress on restitution harms Poland's relations with Israel and the U.S., creates uncertainty with Germany and causes real economic harm as well. About a fifth of the 2.5 million hectares (or 6.2 million acres) of farmland owned by the state cannot be sold because claims have been filed against it. Meanwhile, Warsaw's real estate market is plagued by lawsuits and unclear titles to property.

"We've been arguing for years that the best answer is to give things back, but I'm not optimistic," Sobanski said.



















German women flock to Polish hair salon heaven
3/19/09
OSINOW DOLNY, Poland (AFP) — It may only be a small Polish village of 200 inhabitants but each week hundreds of German women beat a path to Osinow Dolny which claims to have the greatest concentration of hair salons on the planet.
Armed with purses full of euros, the women travel 60 kilometres (40 miles) from Berlin to a Polish border region otherwise seemingly left behind by Poland's post-communism boom.
Driving down the main strip on a grey March day, the village is festooned with candy-coloured signs -- in German -- advertising establishments such as "Friseur Salon Zuzanna", "Friseur Ada" or "Friseur Teresa."
Demand from German women coming for a blue rinse, a perm or just a tidy trim has been so great the number of salons has not only grown, but those already established have expanded into prefab huts, next door premises or even their gardens.
Others have also branched out into other services, like manicures and facials.
But none of the hair being cut, dyed, tousled or curled here is Polish.
Inside "Salon Karin" -- which greets customers with a sign saying Willkommen" (welcome in German) -- not even the Polish currency, the zloty, is changing hands.
The price list, too, is in euros: cut -- four euros (5.25 dollars); wash and cut -- six euros.
Amid the din of of hair-dryers, Brigitte Arnzk does the maths.
"In Germany, my hairdo would cost 13 euros," says the 70-year-old Berliner, who made the trip to Osinow Dolny together with her neighbour.
Pensioner Gudrun Knapp is also a satisfied customer.
"I come here every six to eight weeks, and have done for the last 15 years, always to the same salon. In Germany, I wouldn't be able to afford it," Gudrun tells AFP.
"I make the most of it, fill the car up with petrol, buy some baby stuff," something that is also cheaper than in Germany, thanks to the strong euro and the weak zloty, she says.
And there is no sign of a recession here. The salons are all busy, catering for a never-ending stream of German customers, particularly in the morning -- meaning that many open for business at 7:00 am including on Sundays.
Language problems sometimes make it difficult for salon staff to grasp exactly what is required, but business is booming nonetheless.
"Cut. Dry," explains Brigitte. "Ja, ok, ok, bitte schoen" (Yes, ok, ok, please sit down)," says stylist Jolanta Zelinska.
A television stands between trolleys full of rollers and dyes blaring out Polish programmes at full volume.
Jolanta opened her salon nine years ago, when the main business in Osinow Dolny was selling bargain-hungry Germans cheap cigarettes and food, and when there were just a handful of salons.
"After getting married, I worked down the market. I became a hairdresser because the border is nearby, and there is loads of work," she tells AFP.
Eugeniusz Swierczynski, meanwhile, never thought he would end up doing German women's hair in a salon on the ground floor of his house.
"But there was money to be made," he says as he directs an army of apprentices dressed in black and white. "We get 40 customers a day, that makes around 300 euros a day."

[valpomike]

The Polish money is now at 3.34 exchange and is going down, and this is good for Poland.
What is the reason for this? Can you see the change in Poland, and if yes, how.
I hope Poland never goes to the Euro, could be a major mistake.

Mike

[tufta]

Weak PLN is one of the important factors which still keep us away from the full -blown crisis like in Germany or Hungary - we can still export cheaply. Which now means -export at all

[Bonobo]

‘We won’t pay for your crisis!’
Created: 26.03.2009 10:53

Polish trade unionists will be staging a mass demonstration under the slogan ‘We won’t pay for your crisis!’ outside the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry for Health in opposition to the Government’s anti-crisis policies in Warsaw today.

Outside the Ministry of Economy, trade unionists will be demanding pay increases and will be protesting against the government’s withdrawal from introducing an early retirement system, the liberalisation of the Labour Code and a cut in investments.

In front of the Ministry for Health, medical trade unionists are to express their opposition to the proposed health reforms in Poland. Emergency services workers, in particular, are to protest against a plan to let private companies take over rescue services.

Robert Szulc, head of the National Union of Emergency Medical Workers stated that the protests will demand to stop the “wild privatisation” of hospitals and clinics throughout the medical field.

Health Minister Ewa Kopacz, who met yesterday with emergency service unionists from the Solidarity Union and the leftist trade union OPZZ, stated that the protests are very political in nature.

Amongst the multi-union protesters, organisers expect around one thousand miners and steelworkers from the Silesia region, as well as representatives from the armaments industry and hypermarket workers gathered from all over Poland.

www.polskieradio.pl/thenews/news/artykul105033_We_wont_pay_for_your_crisis.html

[Bonobo]

Jan 11, 2009 23:23:15 GMT 1 tomek said:

Euro may be good but peopoles worry at prices. Will it suddenly go up when Poland takes euro?

Most Poles for euro adoption: survey

WARSAW, March 27 (Xinhua) -- Fifty three percent of respondents to a recent CBOS poll are for switching Polish currency zloty to euro and 38 percent stands firmly by the Polish national currency, according to Polish news agency PAP on Friday.

Sixty nine percent would like to see euro in circulation as soon as possible, in line with the government expectations between2012 and 2013.

The poll shows that 26 percent of euro supporters opted for a later date.

The poll was run on March 4-10, on a respondent sample of 979 adult Poles.

The Polish government has said it wanted Poland to enter pre-euro Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM-2) in the first half of 2009, and to meet convergence criteria in 2011 which would enable euro adoption on Jan. 1, 2012.

[valpomike]

What do you think on this?
Why do some want it, and others don't?
Why could you not have both, like some other places?
I think it would hurt Poland, so I am against it.

Mike

[Bonobo]

valpomike said:

What do you think on this?

It will be beneficial.





Why do some want it, and others don't?

Those who don`t want it are conservative beyond necessity.






Why could you not have both, like some other places?

It is impossible. No modern European country has two currencies.





I think it would hurt Poland, so I am against it.

No, it won`t.

[valpomike]

In Poland, they took my American money without a problem, so why could they not keep Polish money and add the Euro?

Mike

[Bonobo]

Mar 31, 2009 1:44:46 GMT 1 valpomike said:

In Poland, they took my American money without a problem, so why could they not keep Polish money and add the Euro?

Mike

Mike, it seems you would like to have 3 currencies in Poland. ;D

[valpomike]

No, just the real Polish ones, the ones they now have.

Mike